Funds

The best global smaller companies funds

A handful of funds have proved adept at riding small-cap markets’ ups and downs

Dan Jones
Dan Jones

After a long time out of favour, global smaller companies have started to perform well again. Choosing a fund to capitalise on this trend isn’t straightforward, however.

The MSCI World Small Cap index returned just 10 per cent in the three years to the start of 2025 – worse than all major indices other than emerging markets, as inflation and higher interest rates hit home. Absolute performance improved in 2024 and at the start of last year, but it wasn’t until the market bottom following President Donald Trump’s so-called “liberation day” that global small caps started to outperform.

The improved returns have gone hand in hand with a better time for the US small-cap index, the Russell 2000. As with the mainstream global index, small-cap benchmarks are dominated by US stocks: the MSCI small-cap index holds 60 per cent of assets in the region. This is 10 percentage points lower than the MSCI World’s own weighting, but still easily enough for what happens in the US to define how global small caps perform.

But the lower end of the cap scale (index median stock size: $1.5bn (£1.1bn)) isn’t dominated by technology stocks to the same degree as the upper echelons. The tech sector accounts for 11.5 per cent of the Small Cap index, less than half its weighting in the MSCI World. The slack is taken up by industrials, whose 20 per cent position is twice as large, as well as a greater weighting to the materials (largely mining) sector.

It’s true that the top slot in the smaller companies index is currently occupied by Sandisk (US:SNDK), the memory chipmaker whose shares have soared in the past six months as investors cotton on to the AI-induced increases in demand. Sandisk shares are up over 1,000 per cent since it spun off from Western Digital (US:WDC) a year ago, and 100 per cent in the past month. That has given it a market cap of $75bn; hardly smaller company territory.

But investors won’t be particularly exposed if the stock goes into reverse: at the start of January it still only accounted for 0.35 per cent of the World Small Cap index. The index spreads itself thinly across more than 3,000 stocks, and the top 10 account for less than 2.5 per cent of the total. That creates scope for active managers to outperform, albeit as usual this has proved easier said than done. Index trackers such as the iShares MSCI World Small Cap ETF (WLDS) or the Vanguard Global Small-Cap Index fund (IE00B3X1NT05) represent the most straightforward way to play this theme. Below, we profile some of the more notable active funds and investment trusts trying to do better still.

Assessing open-ended smaller companies funds’ relative merits takes a bit of effort because there is no dedicated grouping for them. Instead, they are lumped in with more than 500 other global equity funds, most of which will invest in large-cap stocks, in the Investment Association Global sector. There are roughly 30 funds focused on global smaller companies, several of which have launched in the past few years.

Asset managers, who often roll out products targeting sectors already at the crest of a wave, could perhaps be commended for being countercyclical here.

One standout performer in the sector, the Goldman Sachs Global Small Cap Core Equity Portfolio (LU1253914516), has been around for over a decade. It has an eyebrow-raising number of holdings for an active equity fund: more than 800 at the last count. While spreading the risk is a sensible strategy with small caps, there are limits: holding too many stocks can often mean the portfolio simply tracks the index, at a higher price than a low-cost passive fund. But in this case proof is in the performance, including in 2022 when the fund shed less than half the index’s 11 per cent drop. No position is larger than 1 per cent of the portfolio, indicating several return drivers, although the presence of silver miner Hecla Mining (US:HL) and circuit board maker TTM Technologies (US:TTMI) in the top 10 is instructive.

One of the only funds to rival Goldman over one, three and five years is the Principal GIF Origin Global Smaller Companies fund, a portfolio not readily accessible to private investors. Of note however is the fact that Jupiter (which acquired the Origin team at the start of last year) has launched an active exchange traded fund (ETF) version of the strategy late last year, the HanETF Jupiter Origin Global Smaller Companies ETF (JOGP). The fund has a more conventional 182 holdings, with miners such as Canada’s Lundin Gold (CA:LUG) and the UK’s Pan African Resources (PAF) among the biggest overweights.

As with mainstream global indices, UK shares make up a relatively paltry amount of the World Small Cap index, at just 4.5 per cent. Few active funds deviate materially from single-digit levels, but one outlier is Oldfield Partners’ Overstone Global Smaller Companies (IE00BD3H6883) strategy, which has almost 30 per cent in domestic shares. Nor has performance been unduly harmed by this.

As sometimes happens with smaller company strategies, the fund uses a small and mid-cap benchmark, which means its largest picks include mid-caps JD Wetherspoon (JDW), Jet2 (JET2) and Frasers (FRAS). Concentration is more of a factor here – Wetherspoons accounts for over 9 per cent of the portfolio by itself – as is the fact that, at just £42mn in size, the fund may be at risk of closure in the years ahead because it is sub-scale.

A lack of assets, ultimately leading to a closure, is a risk for new funds, too. If a product fails to gain traction, it can be shut down within a handful of years.

In some cases, there is a degree of reassurance available. One of the newest funds in the sector, the Janus Henderson Global Smaller Companies (GB00BP47T486) fund, launched less than a year ago. It is the onshore sibling of a Luxembourg-domiciled fund, Janus Henderson Horizon Global Smaller Companies, that has more than £1bn in assets, which should mean its future is assured.

The latter vehicle, which the onshore version replicates, is the sector’s outright leader over three and five years, having returned almost 100 per cent over the past half-decade.

Describing the portfolio, manager Nick Sheridan says: “The fund will tend to have a valuation multiple below that of the market but a return profile that is higher than the market.”

“Hence, it could be said that if viewed as a single stock, the portfolio has the characteristics of a ‘fallen angel’, a company with historically high returns but one where the market believes these returns will degrade. We believe that when taken in aggregate, this is not the case.”

That said, the portfolio’s long-time top position, Comfort Systems USA (US:FIX), has returned some 1,800 per cent over the past five years, and 280 per cent since the market lows last April. As a provider of heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, the stock is another indirect beneficiary of the AI and data centre boom.

How global small-cap funds have performed
Fund name 1-year (%) 3-year (%) 5-year (%)
Janus Henderson Horizon Global Smaller Companies  15.9 76.4 96.8
IFSL Marlborough Global SmallCap  6 65.2  N/A
Principal GIF Origin Global Smaller Companies 20.2 56.6 76
Goldman Sachs Global Small Cap Core Equity Portfolio 18.3 56.3 78.7
Overstone Global Smaller Companies  24.3 47.5 57.1
Herald Investment Trust  11.9 44.4 11.9
Artemis SmartGARP Global Smaller Companies 10.7 38 42.4
 The Global Smaller Companies Trust 14.9 29.1 38.1
Edinburgh Worldwide IT  16.8 26.8 -42.3
Smithson Investment Trust 2.3 12.2 -6.7
North Atlantic Smaller Companies IT  -0.9 -0.4 -5.2
MSCI World Small Cap Index 14 39.3 45.4
 
 
Source: FE

Two others funds are also worthy of a brief mention. IFSL Marlborough Global SmallCap (GB00BQPB2364) is second only to Janus Henderson in terms of three-year returns. Notably, it has achieved this performance with a lower weighting to the US than most (45 per cent at the portfolio), even if it does share one top holding, US copper products manufacturer Mueller Industries (US:MLI), with Sheridan’s fund. A one-year return of just 6 per cent, triggered by a steep pre-“liberation day” drawdown early last year, as well as a truly sub-scale size of £8mn, are reasons for caution.

Finally there is Artemis SmartGARP Global Smaller Companies (GB00B568S201). The growth at a reasonable price (Garp) system has translated into top-quartile returns for other Artemis funds of late, but the small-cap strategy remains one of the active funds to have lagged the index over one, three and five years. New management might yet change that: Raheel Altaf, who runs other SmartGARP funds, took over the portfolio in October.

Global small-cap investment trusts’ performance has been worse than open-ended funds’, largely owing to the specifics of the former group’s investment strategies. Only three of the five trusts are even in the black over the past half-decade. Edinburgh Worldwide (EWI) has shed 42 per cent, largely due to its huge slump in 2021 and 2022 as rising interest rates put its portfolio of speculative and unlisted tech shares to the sword. The trust’s large position in SpaceX (16 per cent of assets), as well as other big unlisted holdings such as quantum computing stock PsiQuantum, continue to make it stand out from the crowd, for better or for worse.

EWI is among the trusts to have attracted attention (and fierce criticism) from activist Saba, and although it has now survived two attempts to oust its board, the future of Saba’s 30 per cent stake is yet to be resolved. Another small-cap trust has already bowed to pressure: Fundsmith’s Smithson (SSON) is to convert into an open-ended fund in March. As with Terry Smith’s flagship fund, Smithson’s focus on out-of-favour quality shares has hurt performance, as has its stock selection.

Another Saba target, Herald (HWI), is at least in positive territory over the past half-decade, but remains well behind the benchmark. A policy of investing in small-cap UK and US tech stocks at least offers something different to peers, although a proposed 100 per cent tender means the trust’s future is uncertain.

A US-UK split is also part of the strategy at North Atlantic Smaller Companies (NAS), albeit it has had less joy still over the short term. Unusually, manager Christopher Mills of Harwood Capital – known in the sector for activist campaigns at Hipgnosis Songs and PRS Reit – invests in other investment trusts as well as listed and unlisted stocks. His biggest holdings include UK small-cap trust Odyssean (OIT) as well as another of Harwood’s funds, Oryx International Growth (OIG).

Perhaps it’s not that unusual. The Global Smaller Companies Trust (GSCT) also holds a variety of other funds and trusts in areas where its parent company Columbia Threadneedle professes to have limited experience. In practice, this means emerging market funds, which make up a relatively sizeable 15 per cent of the portfolio. Founded in 1889, its manager, Nish Patel, is somewhat newer, having taken over in May 2024, albeit he has worked on the fund for more than 15 years. With over half the share register held by Columbia Threadneedle employees, the trust is unlikely to attract the activist attention its peers have seen. Patel describes the trust’s investment style as “conservative” and, while that will be welcome to many in the often racy world of small-caps, he will be hoping performance can catch up with some of the sector’s young upstarts over the medium term.

Economics

Signs of life for the UK: Economic week ahead – 2-6 February

Survey data suggests a healthy start to the year for the UK economy

Dan Jones
Dan Jones

Inflation’s rise to 3.4 per cent in December was widely viewed as a blip. Elevated figures from a year ago will shortly fall out of the assessment period, meaning a move closer to 2 per cent is expected this spring.

Add in shaky employment figures, and economists believe a couple more rate cuts are on the way this year. But the narrative could yet head off in another direction – Deutsche Bank now suggests the UK economy is starting to rebound. That would be welcome, but it would also imply stickier price growth. The Bank of England is likely to hold rates next week; Deutsche says a “Q1 skip” is possible if data remains solid.


Monday 2 February

China: Manufacturing PMI

Eurozone: Manufacturing PMI

Japan: Manufacturing PMI

UK: Manufacturing PMI

US: Construction spending, ISM manufacturing, manufacturing PMI


Tuesday 3 February

None


Wednesday 4 February

China: Services PMI

Eurozone: Composite & services PMIs, CPI inflation

Japan: Services PMI

UK: Composite & services PMIs

US: Composite & services PMIs, ISM services, factory orders


Thursday 5 February

Eurozone: ECB interest rate decision, retail sales

UK: BoE interest rate decision, construction PMI

US: Goods trade balance


Friday 6 February

Japan: Leading economic index

UK: Halifax house price index

US: Consumer credit, Michigan consumer sentiment (preliminary), unemployment rate

Companies

Shell & GSK: Stock market week ahead – 2-6 February

A summary of key company announcements expected in the coming week

Mark Robinson
Mark Robinson

Monday 2 February

Economics: PMI manufacturing

Interims: Cap-XX (CPX) 

Companies paying dividends: Amedeo Air Four Plus (2p), F&C Investment Trust (3.8p), United Utilities (17.88p), Workspace (9.4p)


Tuesday 3 February    

Economics: BRC sales monitor

Trading updates: Jadestone Energy (JSE)

Interims: Alumasc (ALU), EnSilica (ENSI), Filtronic (FTC)

Finals: LBG Media (LBG)

Companies paying dividends: Johnson Matthey (22p)


Wednesday 4 February 

Economics: PMI composite, PMI services

Trading updates: DCC (DCC), Entain (ENT), Watches Of Switzerland (WOSG)

Finals: GSK (GSK)

AGMs: AJ Bell (AJB), Premier Miton (PMI), Watkin Jones (WJG)

Companies paying dividends: British American Tobacco (60.06p)


Thursday 5 February

Economics: PMI construction

Trading updates: BT Group (BT.A), Compass (CPG), JTC (JTC), Vodafone (VOD)

Finals: Shell (SHEL)

AGMs: Compass (CPG), Hargreave Hale Aim VCT (HHV), Sage (SGE)

Companies paying dividends: JPMorgan European Discovery Trust (3p), Vodafone (€0.02), Greencore (2.6p), Smiths News (6.8p)


Friday 6 February 

Economics: Halifax house price index

Trading updates: Victrex (VCT)

AGMs: Northamber (NAR), Victrex (VCT)

Companies paying dividends: Ashtead ($0.375), Experian (15.8814p), Montanaro UK Smaller Cos Investment Trust (1.6p), QinetiQ (3p), Schroder European Real Estate Investment Trust (1.2802p), TwentyFour Income Fund Ltd (2p), TwentyFour Select Monthly Income Fund Limited (0.5p), XPS Pensions (4.1p), Origin Enterprises (€0.14), Schroder Asia Pacific Fund (13p), Scottish Oriental Smaller Companies Trust (3.4p), BlackRock Latin American Investment Trust (5.383203p), CT UK High Income Trust (1.37p), CT UK High Income Trust “B” (1.37p), Mercantile Investment Trust (1.55p)

Companies going ex-dividend on 5 February
Company Dividend Date
Avon Technologies $0.17 06-Mar
On The Beach 3p 19-Mar
Paragon Banking 30.3p 06-Mar
Victorian Plumbing 1.45p 04-Mar
Albion Enterprise VCT 2.82p 27-Feb
Dunedin Income Growth 4.25p 27-Feb
Polar Capital Global Healthcare 1p 27-Feb
CQS Natural Resources Growth and Income 7p 27-Feb
Starwood European Real Estate Finance 1.375p 27-Feb
Residential Secure Income 1.03p 27-Feb
News

News round-up: 30 January 2026

The biggest investment stories of the past seven days

Alex Hamer
Alex Hamer

British Land to buy Life Science Reit

British Land (BLND) has announced the acquisition of smaller peer Life Science Reit (LABS) for £150mn. 

The offer, which has been unanimously accepted by Life Science Reit’s board, values its shares at 42.8p – a 21 per cent premium to the closing price on the day before the announcement, but at a 26 per cent discount to the December 2025 net asset value per share. One-third is in cash and the remainder in British Land shares. 

Life Science shareholders will own 2.4 per cent of British Land following completion of the deal, expected in April.

The company, which owns five life science assets last valued at a total of £333mn, had previously announced in November that it would enter into a managed wind-down, the result of a vocal campaign by activist shareholders including Saba Capital and Achilles Investment Company (AIC).  

The pair are among several shareholders who have publicly backed the deal. They have a combined shareholding of 31 per cent.

“The deal returns immediate value to shareholders without the costs, uncertainty and execution risks of a managed wind-down,” Robert Naylor, lead fund manager of Achilles and a board member at Life Science, told Investors’ Chronicle.

British Land is guiding for the acquisition to be immediately earnings accretive, once it pares back Life Science Reit’s £5mn of annual admin fees and refinances its debt. These include a £3mn fee paid to its external fund manager, Ironstone Asset Management, which will be discontinued.

British Land estimates that it can increase the annual rental income from the Life Science Reit portfolio by nearly 40 per cent to £25mn by filling vacancies and realising open-market rents. It can lease to a broader range of tenants than Life Science Reit, whose mandate restricts it to tenants in the life sciences sector.

“The acquisition underlines our confidence in the long-term occupational fundamentals of the science and technology sector, and our ability to deliver attractive returns,” said Simon Carter, the outgoing chief executive of British Land.

Shares in Life Science Reit rose 19 per cent in early trading, while those in British Land fell 1 per cent. HM


Atalaya Mining makes hay with capital raise

Copper prices are at record levels and Atalaya Mining’s (ATYM) shares have more than matched this performance, tripling in price in the past 12 months. The company has used this valuation strength to raise £130mn from the market, largely to support expansion through a new mine build and extensions at its existing Riotinto project in Spain.

The raise was conducted at 1,000p, compared with the pre-raise price of 1,056p. The new mine, Touro, has not yet received a permit. A 2018 study put annual production at 30,000 tonnes after a development bill of $165mn (£120mn), although mine costs have risen significantly since then. Atalaya said on Wednesday that the capital raise would provide the “financial flexibility to optimise the ultimate funding package for Proyecto Touro”.

RBC Capital Markets analyst Laura Chan said the raise was “fairly opportunistic” and took Atalaya’s total available cash to around $324mn. “We find the timing of the raise somewhat odd given the company has yet to receive the key permit for Touro,” she added. AH


NS&I cuts rates again

National Savings & Investments (NS&I) has slashed the interest rates on its Direct Saver and Income Bonds products, cutting them both from 3.3 per cent (annual equivalent rate) to 3.05 per cent.

The change is another blow for NS&I savers as interest rates on its fixed-term bonds were slashed earlier this month.

It had been hoped that the government’s decision to increase NS&I’s net financing target to £13bn at the November Budget would reduce the likelihood of further cuts.

However, further downward pressure has been applied to savings rates following the Bank of England’s December rate cut. 

Andrew Westhead, NS&I retail director, said: “Today’s changes will help us meet our net financing target whilst continuing to balance the interests of our savers, taxpayers and the wider financial services sector.”

The changes will take effect on 12 February. HMc


S4 Capital rallies after topping consensus and trimming debt

Shares in S4 Capital (SFOR) rose 48 per cent in the week to 28 January, after Sir Martin Sorrell’s digital marketing agency said full-year trading would come in ahead of market expectations. 

Net revenue is set to be ahead of the company’s revised guidance issued in November and above the current consensus of £664mn. Operational earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) are also expected to beat expectations of £75mn. 

On a like-for-like basis, net revenue is expected to be down around 8.5 per cent year on year, with an operational Ebitda margin of roughly 12 per cent. 

The company has also made progress in shoring up its finances, paving the way for the board to recommend another 1p final dividend. Net debt will be below the previously guided range of £100mn-£140mn after a change of treasury and working capital management.

As a result, net debt stood at 1.1 times operational Ebitda at the end of 2025, compared with current consensus of 1.8 times and well below the target of 1.5 times. Full-year results are due on 25 March, along with more detailed targets for 2026. VM


Netflix plots TV domination

The company will be difficult to overtake if its deal for Warner Bros goes through. Arthur Sants reports

In 2019, the phrase “streaming wars” was popularised to describe the growing competition between Netflix (US:NFLX) and its rivals. In just a few years, Amazon (US:AMZN) launched Prime Video, Disney (US:DIS) created Disney+, and Apple (US:AAPL) started its Apple TV streaming service. 

Back then, the intense competition was pushing them to invest billions to create new content and attract more subscribers. Now, as top dog in the business with a very strong share price and high profit levels, Netflix is looking to further cement its lead through its $83bn all-cash offer for Warner Bros Discovery (US:WBD)

Netflix revised its offer this week, proposing an all-cash transaction rather than a mix of cash and shares. 

The revision comes after Paramount Skydance (US:PSKY) launched its own formal bid for Warner Bros, worth $108bn on an enterprise value basis. Unlike Netflix’s offer, Paramount’s proposal included WBD’s cable TV channels such as CNN and Discovery. Warner Bros rejected this as far riskier to complete given the $95bn in debt and equity financing needed. Paramount’s market value is just $12bn. 

In the past three years, Netflix’s market value has risen 135 per cent while Paramount’s has fallen 15 per cent (including the Skydance acquisition that completed last year). However, strong cash generation means that, even with this price rise, Netflix’s free cash flow yield of 2.7 per cent is more than double Paramount’s.

If Netflix does win the battle and the deal is approved by regulators, which is not certain, it will represent a big expansion to its intellectual property. 

WBD owns HBO Max, which has some of the most popular TV intellectual property, including Game of Thrones and The Sopranos, as well as newer shows including The White Lotus and Heated Rivalry. Warner Bros’ movie library includes Casablanca and Citizen Kane, as well as the Harry Potter franchise and merchandise rights. 

Netflix accounts for 8 per cent of US TV viewership, while HBO Max represents around 1.5 per cent, according to data from Nielsen. Analysts at UBS believe the franchise IP from HBO’s “long history and pedigree in prestige TV” would immediately create “higher engagement” from Netflix subscribers. 

This addition of new shows would enable Netflix to push through further price rises, given some of its customers would already be paying for a separate HBO account. “An integration of HBO’s content would ultimately translate into higher viewership for Netflix,” said UBS analyst John Hodulik. 

Competition concerns are already emerging from the US and the UK. A US Senate sub-committee will hold a hearing next week on the deal, after Republican senator Mike Lee said the potential transaction “appears likely to raise serious antitrust issues, including the risk of substantially lessening competition in streaming markets”.

“We’re confident we’re going to be able to secure all the approvals because this deal is pro-consumer, it is pro-innovation, it is pro-worker, it is pro-creator, and it is pro-growth,” said Netflix co-chief executive Ted Sarandos.

If the tie-up is blocked, Netflix remains on a consistent growth path. Management is guiding for full-year revenue to increase between 12 per cent and 14 per cent this year, to around $51bn. Advertising revenue is set to double. 

Broker Jefferies said Netflix could end up delivering growth above 14 per cent given its “historical conservatism” with its guidance. Looking further ahead, management aims to reach $80bn in revenue and $30bn in operating profit by 2030 with the existing portfolio.

The Jefferies analysts said accelerating content costs did raise “questions around the level of content investment required to sustain organic growth”. Netflix spent $17bn on new content in 2025, up 6 per cent on 2024. 

The analysts also said the Warner Bros approach would likely determine the share price performance in the coming months. “Netflix shifting its bid to all‐cash should accelerate the timeline for a Warner Bros shareholder vote [to late February/early March] and potentially pressure Paramount to either raise its offer or walk away from the deal,” they said. 

FINANCIAL PLANNING AND EDUCATION

‘I’m an Isa millionaire – how should I invest for income?’ 

Portfolio Clinic: Our reader is unsure of the best approach to fund his retirement. Holly McKechnie takes a look

Holly McKechnie
Holly McKechnie

We spend a lot of time thinking about strategy when we’re building up our retirement pots. However, what we do when it comes to spending our hard-earned savings is equally as important. If you’ve been a diligent investor, you will hopefully have a range of assets to rely on when the time comes, but this means you need a plan for how to access them. Tax efficiency, risk and longevity all need to be considered to get the most out of your portfolio. 

Arthur is facing this dilemma. At 58, he is two years off his planned, yet flexible, retirement date, and he is wondering which assets he should draw on first. He has built up a sizeable Isa, earning himself the coveted title of ‘Isa millionaire’. This is primarily invested in a mix of exchange traded funds (ETFs). “I like the simplicity and transparency,” he says.

Alongside this, Arthur has another £1.2mn invested in his personal pension and a general investment account (GIA). He also has a workplace pension, which will provide him with a yearly income of around £40,000 and a lump sum worth more than £120,000, and he will receive the full state pension, although neither of these can be accessed for some years. Additionally, Arthur has several property assets, including his own home, valued at £415,000, a rental property and farmland.

He would like to draw an income of £50,000 a year from across his investments, at least until his pensions kick in, and is aiming for a minimum yearly return of 6 per cent. The problem is, he’s not sure how to get started. 

“Should I leave my pensions intact for as long as possible and derive an income from my Isa? Alternatively, is it best to leave my Isa intact and encash one or more of my pensions?” Arthur asks. “A further alternative would be to encash my GIA funds to avoid breaking into my pensions and Isa.” 

Each year, he saves the maximum amount he can into his Isa and personal pension, and as he has two years left before his retirement start date, he would like some advice on what to do with the excess. 

“I am drip-feeding money into my GIA but I am conscious that I am building up a big capital gains tax (CGT) liability,” he says. He has looked into venture capital trusts and enterprise investment scheme investments but is unsure if they are too risky or worth the high charges. 

Arthur also has a few other financial decisions to make before he retires. One is whether he should pay off his buy-to-let mortgage. His rental property is worth £675,000 and he has £175,000 left on the mortgage. He is considering selling his buy-to-let but is again put off by the CGT this will incur.

He is also thinking about purchasing more farmland. Currently, he owns a quarter share valued at £182,500, alongside three relatives. An opportunity might arise to buy the others out. For this to occur, he would need to raise £547,500. Should he proceed with this plan, he is considering cashing in his trading account to fund the purchase. However, he is of course concerned about a CGT liability.

Arthur has no dependants and will bequeath his assets to family members and charities to avoid incurring any inheritance tax.

Have your portfolio reviewed by experts

Are you on track to achieve your goals? Do your investments deliver the right returns? Is your financial planning as tax efficient as possible?

If not, head to the Portfolio Clinic. You can have your portfolio analysed by experts who will provide ideas and recommendations to help you.

Email us at portfolio.clinic@ft.com to find out more. To read examples, click here.

This is a free service and all submissions are welcome, whether you are starting or have amassed millions. We don’t reveal your name so your anonymity is guaranteed.

NONE OF THE COMMENTARY BELOW SHOULD BE REGARDED AS ADVICE. IT IS GENERAL INFORMATION BASED ON A SNAPSHOT OF THESE INVESTORS’ CIRCUMSTANCES

You are in a strong position. At 58, you have substantial assets across your Isa, pensions, property and taxable investments. Your challenge is not whether you can retire comfortably, but how to do so efficiently, with minimal risk in the final stretch.

In most cases, it makes sense to leave pensions untouched for as long as possible. They remain highly tax-efficient: income tax is deferred and growth is sheltered. So, as you are still working and do not need the income immediately, drawing from your Isa first is sensible. Isas provide tax-free income and flexibility, while allowing pension assets to continue compounding.

Encashing taxable assets from your trading account simply to avoid touching your Isa or pension is rarely a good idea. CGT is an irreversible cost, and large disposals should be staged carefully. If you do need to raise capital, one option would be to sell holdings within the general investment account that carry only modest gains or losses. In your case, this could include ETFs such as the Invesco MSCI World Equal Weight ETF (MWEP), iShares Global Water ETF (IH2O), L&G Global Health and Pharmaceuticals Index (GB00B0CNH387), Vanguard FTSE Global All Cap Index (GB00BD3RZ582) and Xtrackers MSCI World Utilities ETF (XWUS), allowing capital to be released relatively tax efficiently.

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Find out more here

Your preference for low-cost, transparent ETFs is sensible, and your portfolio is well diversified geographically and by theme. However, it remains heavily tilted towards stocks, even allowing for your guaranteed pension income. At 58, it would be reasonable to begin modestly reducing this and introducing more defensive assets, particularly within the Isa if you expect to draw from it in the early years of retirement.

A strategic bond fund could play a useful role here, such as Aegon Strategic Bond (GB00B00MY367) or Artemis Short-Duration Strategic Bond (GB00BJXPPH66). They can help dampen volatility and reduce the risk of selling stocks during market downturns.

It may also be worth complementing your tracker funds with a modest allocation to high-quality active funds, particularly those focused on income and capital preservation. For example, a multi-asset strategy such as Jupiter Merlin Income (GB00B4N2L746) or a global income fund like Guinness Global Equity Income (IE00BVYPP131) could add diversification and a more defensive tilt.

Whether or not to repay your buy-to-let mortgage is as much a behavioural consideration as it is a financial decision. While reducing debt can feel comforting, it will not make sense to repay the mortgage if you then have to borrow to fund the purchase of agricultural land. The mortgage is small relative to both the value of the property and your overall asset base, which argues for leaving it in place, especially as the payment is covered by rental income.

You should also think carefully before committing additional capital to farmland. While it may have personal appeal, farmland is illiquid and unlikely to generate attractive financial returns. Given the strength of your existing position, further investment here may be unnecessary unless there are strong non-financial reasons. If you do proceed, taking the 25 per cent tax-free lump sum from your personal pension could help fund the purchase and reduce the need to crystallise capital gains elsewhere.

For someone with secure pension income, a high net worth and a long-term time horizon, you have a growth-oriented, but not reckless, investment strategy. You have a heavy allocation to stocks via ETFs, which is the right mindset for your 6 per cent-plus target. You have some diversification via property and farmland, but limited exposure to bonds and defensive assets.

You do not need to rely on market returns for essential spending, and your defined benefit and state pensions, when they kick in, will provide you with around £55,000 of largely inflation-linked income. This materially reduces your sequence of returns risk, allowing you to have a higher amount of stocks than many retirees. However, there could be a case for some defensive ballast for the next couple of years.

As you prefer low-cost and transparent ETFs, iShares Core Global Aggregate Bond ETF (AGBP) would be a good option to consider. Credit spreads are tight, but yields are at levels that predict acceptable forward-looking returns. Finding managers who can harness the income and avoid the downsides is a prudent approach. Man Credit Opportunities Alternative (GB00BYQJ5G92) is run by Mike Scott, a manager who invests with a high degree of skill and consistency.

A further way of adding security to your portfolio would be to purchase direct UK government bonds in your GIA. There are the index-linked variety, which typically carry low coupons but come with inflation protection, or conventional government bonds. You can mix and match to achieve your desired level of duration and income. With rates predicted to fall, owning government bonds would be preferable to holding cash.

In terms of which assets you should use first for retirement income, the key principle is to use tax sequencing intelligently. Before receiving the state pension, temporarily draw on your Isa and ensure all your available allowances are used within your GIA. This keeps your taxable income low and preserves your pensions. 

From state pension age onwards, your final-salary and state pension will probably cover most of your spending. At this point, your Isa can then become a top-up resource and contingency fund. 

Regarding whether you should pay off your buy-to-let mortgage or continue to borrow against the property to invest, ultimately this is a personal decision. Although the numbers matter, so does flexibility. Leverage has historically enhanced returns, as it preserves liquidity elsewhere and inflation has eroded the real value of debt. 

However, the benefit of repayment is that there is a guaranteed return equal to the mortgage rate, and it lowers your debt levels as you approach retirement. The balanced view would be not to rush to repay, but to review the situation again once you have retired. Take into account the prevailing interest rate at the time and your spending needs. Partial repayment may be a compromise to consider in the meantime.

The Alpha asset allocation model

James Norrington, Chartered FCSI and associate editor, has created four asset allocation strategies for Investors’ Chronicle Alpha and portfolio clinic case studies.

We’ve also applied a tactical asset allocation (TAA) framework to help investors position themselves for current market conditions. Arthur has been recommended a ‘moderate risk’ portfolio.

James says: “Our moderate risk strategy keeps you in shares in the lead-up to retirement but diversifies with holdings in bonds and gold. US shares are still a major exposure through the MSCI World holding, but we take a circumspect approach by concentrating additional positions on Japan, the UK and Europe. As of January, we tactically hold around 14.5 per cent in cash as a crash protection measure, although if you are still working and meeting liquidity needs through salary, you might be tempted to put more of this cash safety buffer back to work.

“For January 2026, our tactical signals have caused us to drastically reduce US dollar exposure. The UK bond allocation that we have moved into is spread across bonds with different times to maturity, reflecting the chance that UK inflation could shift in either direction. That said, the weakening UK labour market might lead to inflation expectations heading lower, providing the Bank of England leeway to make faster than anticipated rate cuts, which would be bullish for longer-maturity bond prices.”

Companies

How Big Tech’s valuation metrics are evolving

The end of the ‘capital-light’ business model necessitates a new approach

Mark Robinson
Mark Robinson

If you’ve never succumbed to the allure of social media, it may be that you might fail to recognise the changes under way in this corner of the tech market and what they might mean for investors. Younger, nimbler minds might also fob you off with some blithe assumptions on the state of play. I’ve been unreliably informed (as it turns out) that no one under the age of 30 uses Facebook anymore. The reality is that people aged 18-34 still constitute a sizeable portion of the member base. The difference is that engagement has deteriorated sharply, as younger demographics shift their usage towards passive browsing.

The youthful trend towards a seemingly addictive – some might say pernicious – form of media consumption is unsettling from a sociological angle, but an industry stalwart such as Meta (US:META) is well placed to counter the threat posed by short-form video platforms such as TikTok due to the group’s 2012 acquisition of Instagram. That move initially drew criticism, not only in terms of the reputed $1bn (£750mn) price tag, but also due to the charge that it was undertaken primarily to buy up the competition – a familiar refrain at the time.

Whatever the motivation behind the deal, the incorporation of Instagram, along with the WhatsApp messaging platform two years later, now appears almost Sibylline given the evolution of social media. Mark Zuckerberg and his team at Meta have been able to prioritise Instagram’s video format Reels and the sharing of multiple images via a single “carousel post” at the expense of seemingly arcane stories and static images. Content recommendations and bespoke advertising are now increasingly hand-in-glove with generative AI. The technology is also being integrated within WhatsApp.

It’s well appreciated that Meta isn’t the only tech heavyweight to tailor its online presence to meet evolving trends in the marketplace; Google and others have proactively incorporated generative AI within their online systems. This evolution was to be expected, but one point worth highlighting from an investment perspective is that the adoption of AI hardware has compromised the hitherto asset-light, high-margin business model.

Originally, the big social media platforms were able to keep a lid on capex in relation to physical infrastructure assets, thereby maintaining relatively low cost bases, at least in terms of their day-to-day operations; M&A outgoings are a different matter altogether. Yet ‘big tech’ has been forced to commit to rapid AI expansion in order to shore up market share. Although its own share price has continued to rise undimmed, Alphabet (US:GOOGL) sent a shiver through markets during the final quarter of 2025 when it lifted annual capex guidance to $93bn, up from $52.5bn in the prior year, but it was by no means an outlier on that score.

Microsoft (US:MSFT), Meta, Alphabet and Amazon (US:AMZN) are expected to spend around $470bn on AI and related cloud infrastructure this year alone, but the focus for investors has switched from the scale of big tech’s capex budgets to how rapidly the investments will generate AI-driven revenue and support operating margins. Scrutiny will intensify in the current earnings season.

For all the outgoings, operating margins for Meta, Microsoft and Alphabet ranged between 37 per cent and 44 per cent last year, although it should be noted that some large AI projects are being developed as part of joint venture arrangements, thereby placing them off-balance sheet.

The nature of capital-light business models is often reflected in the proportion of intangible assets on balance sheets, but the mix is changing rapidly as the likes of Meta and X Corp roll out AI data centres, along with the infrastructure needed to power them. Indeed, valuations linked to data centres are increasingly being predicated on energy capacity (monthly cost per kilowatt), rather than the rental charge per square foot. It’s even thought that a version of adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) – a regularly used financial metric for real estate investment trusts – is being used to determine the health of the cash flows of the big tech companies and, by extension, their ability to finance distributions.

Investors would be well advised to monitor the capex-to-sales ratio: the proportion of revenue a company reinvests into fixed assets. Typically, capital-intensive industries such as manufacturing and telecoms come with higher ratios.

The switch to an intensified capital business model will invariably increase operating costs and depreciation rates, with all the attendant implications for earnings. It’s likely that shareholders will also have to contend with shrinking returns on capital, and constraints to free cash flow, although it’s conceivable that these negative effects will only be temporary in nature. But even if the current spending spree in tech history is vindicated by industry returns in 2026, it will still necessitate changes to the way in which corporations in this space are valued and/or screened.

           

Ideas

Boost your income with this diversified and discounted trust

The manager strives to grow total returns by combining a solid yield with earnings growth

Val Cipriani
Val Cipriani

Investors on the hunt for juicy dividends tend to have a strong home bias, as the UK market offers a wealth of income opportunities. However, building a geographically diversified portfolio is crucial regardless of whether you are targeting income or growth. And investment trusts focusing on Asian markets have attractive yields to offer – and also invest in companies with very different features to the UK’s income stalwarts.

Aberdeen Asian Income Fund (AAIF) is a case in point. The trust targets “consistent income and capital growth” by investing “in some of Asia’s most successful and promising companies”.

Aberdeen Asian Income bull points

  • Attractive combination of income and growth

  • High yield thanks to ‘enhanced’ dividend

  • Quality portfolio of Asian companies

It has the second-highest yield in the Association of Investment Companies’ Asia Pacific equity income sector. At the start of 2025, it announced an ‘enhanced’ dividend policy that entails paying out about 6.25 per cent of the trust’s net asset value (NAV) every year.

Peel Hunt analysts explain that the underlying portfolio generates a natural yield of about 4 per cent, while the rest comes from “dividend enhancement trades”. The trust reserves about 4 per cent of its assets to tactically add to companies in the portfolio before their ex-dividend dates, to generate extra income. “When dividends are not in play, the manager rolls this liquidity into either an index exchange traded fund (ETF) or purchases index futures,” they say.

As with all ‘enhanced’ dividend policies, setting a dividend target as a proportion of the NAV means that the dividend is typically higher overall but can be more volatile year on year, depending on how the portfolio performs. With 16 consecutive years of dividend growth, the trust features in the AIC’s list of ‘next generation’ dividend heroes, but the dividend policy change might well impact this going forward. Numis analysts have argued that the new policy should actually allow the managers to be “less constrained by yield seeking” – an option they are already taking advantage of, as we explain below.

The one trust in the sector with a higher dividend than Aberdeen Asian Income’s is Henderson Far East Income (HFEL), which focuses more on high-yield companies and as such tends to generate lower total returns in the long term. It also looks quite expensive at the moment, at a premium of 4.6 per cent as at 22 January.

By comparison, the other trusts in the sector are all on a discount; Aberdeen Asia Income is the second-cheapest after Invesco Asia Dragon (IAD) and is trading at 5.7 per cent below its NAV. Until recently, the trust was flirting with a double-digit discount, but the combination of a strong year for Asian markets, changes to the dividend policy and the introduction of a continuation vote every three years (the first will be in 2028) seem to have helped close it.

Aberdeen Asian Income bear points

  • Volatile market

  • Could struggle if China and/or AI underperform

Performance-wise, Aberdeen Asia Income’s record looks solid, particularly over the medium term. In the five years to 23 January, it returned 53.5 per cent – well ahead of both its benchmark, the MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan and the sector average.

The trust is relatively concentrated, with 43.7 per cent of the portfolio in the top 10 holdings as at 30 November. Last year, it appointed a new manager, Isaac Thong; he took over from Yoojeong Oh, who had run the portfolio since 2016. This also coincided with a shift in the investment strategy, which is now focused on “balancing income and growth”, as the trust’s chair, Ian Cadby, put it in the trust’s latest interim report, in mid 2025.

Cadby described this as a “total return approach” that “combines yield and earnings growth, while maintaining a quality income focus”. As a result, the manager bought “companies that are strong dividend franchises at various stages of their life cycles”, he said. “Some of these companies could be lower yielding, but based on their high-quality business models, dividend policies, and growth potential, are strong dividend payers.”

Examples include Alibaba (HK:9988), the Chinese ecommerce giant, which as at the end of last year had become the trust’s sixth-largest holding at 3 per cent of the portfolio, and India’s HDFC Bank (IN:HDFCBANK), which Cadby described as the “best retail banking franchise in the country”. “It has a high-quality wholesale portfolio, solid underwriting standards, and a progressive digital stance further strengthening its competitive edge,” he said.

Exposure to the other Chinese tech giant, Tencent (HK:700), also increased significantly; it went from 2.3 per cent of the portfolio at the end of 2024 to 6.1 per cent last December.

This shift in strategy had increased the trust’s exposure to China to 29.7 per cent as at the end of November, although this was cut to a below-benchmark weighting of 25.7 per cent by the end of December, as it sold down its 3.7 per cent stake in China Construction Bank (HK:939).

The Chinese stock market had an excellent year, but a series of headwinds for the local economy remain, including its ailing property sector. In 2025, China hit its GDP growth target of 5 per cent, but this was mostly thanks to strong exports making up for relatively weak domestic demand. If the country struggles, Aberdeen Asian Income’s portfolio may not escape unscathed – even though much of the exposure is now focused on the technology sector.

On this note, according to Morningstar, as at the end of September Aberdeen Asian Income had roughly 27 per cent of its portfolio in tech, suggesting that if the AI ‘bubble’ burst in the US, it would be hit pretty hard.

The trust’s three biggest holdings are now the same as the index: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TW:2330), Tencent and Samsung Electronics (KR:005930). The first takes up 11.7 per cent of the portfolio, which is a chunky position but also in line with the index and a number of other Asia-focused funds.

TSMC’s chips are crucial to AI development, and the company is a key supplier to Nvidia (US:NVDA). In the last quarter of 2025, it grew its earnings by 35 per cent compared with the same period in 2024. But of course there are risks – if AI doesn’t deliver on its promises, the company will feel the consequences, and the pace of growth will slow, at the very least. Plus, geopolitical risk hangs over the company: TSMC has made some overtures to the US, and has a major manufacturing site in Arizona, but mostly operates out of Taiwan.

Top 10 holdings
Company Country Weighting (%)
TSMC Taiwan 11.7
Samsung Electronics Korea 6.6
Tencent China 6.1
SITC International Holdings Hong Kong 3.2
DBS Singapore 3.2
Alibaba China 3.0
HDFC Bank India 2.9
Ping An Insurance China 2.5
Reits Australia 2.2
ASE Holdings Taiwan 2.2
Total - 43.7
As at 31 December 2025. Source: trust’s factsheet

Last November, the trust’s managers also initiated a position in SK Hynix (KR:000660), the South Korean semiconductor company whose share price more than tripled over the past year.

“Its profitability is expected to be sustained, given its solid leadership, and it is poised to be a substantial dividend payer from 2027 on the back of its free cash flow-based dividend policy,” the managers wrote.

More broadly, it is worth keeping in mind that while this trust does have an income focus, Asian markets are a lot more volatile than many of their developed counterparts, meaning that both the income and growth elements of this portfolio could be subject to some significant ups and downs – potentially accentuated by the trust’s recent shift towards growth.

But for income investors who don’t mind the volatility and are looking to diversify, there is much to like in this trust, from the attractive yield to the fresh focus on long-term total returns.

Aberdeen Asian Income Fund (AAIF)
Price 277p Gearing 4%
AIC sector Asia Pacific equity income Total assets £450mn
Fund type Investment trust Share price discount to NAV -5.70%
Market cap £395mn Ongoing charge 0.85%
Launch date 20/12/2005 Dividend yield 5.90%
More details: www.aberdeeninvestments.com/en-gb/aaif
Source: AIC as at 22 January
Performance
Trust/sector/index 1-year 3-year 5-year 10-year
Aberdeen Asian Income 28.4 43.7 53.5 204.9
AIC Asia Pacific equity income sector 28.6 36.2 36.5 210.4
MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex Japan index 24.1 35.4 20.6 181.4
Ideas

This FTSE 250 player offers growth at a good price

The investment platform is laying the foundations for a strong recovery

Christopher Akers
Christopher Akers

The UK market for financial advice has some major long-term trends playing in its favour. An ageing population means that a growing number of people are seeking assistance with retirement planning and investments, while intergenerational wealth transfers are expected to surge in the coming decades as assets are passed down.

Meanwhile, as defined-benefit (DB) pension schemes have shut their doors to new members, the accelerating pivot to a defined-contribution (DC) system puts more of an onus on individuals to take control of their retirement pot.

These trends are good news for the growth prospects of the listed wealth managers. While there was flow volatility for the sector around chancellor Rachel Reeves’ November Budget as pension investors got nervous and sold down assets amid gloomy tax forecasts, the event turned out to be ultimately fairly benign for the industry’s outlook.

FTSE 250 group IntegraFin (IHP) flagged in an update this month that its flows had “normalised” after the Budget. IntegraFin, which listed in London in 2018, is one of the UK’s leading adviser platforms; as at 31 December 2025, its Transact platform had more than £77bn of funds under direction (FUD), which put it ahead of the £65bn on AJ Bell’s (AJB) Investcentre.

IntegraFin bull points

  • Getting to grips with cost growth

  • High quality of earnings

  • Net inflows rising

The group’s shares have been bumpy. They have shed 40 per cent of their value since their latest peak of around 600p back in 2021, and underperformed the sector in 2025. Sentiment in recent years has been knocked by factors including investor disquiet about the impact of higher interest rates, a downturn in flows, inflationary cost pressures and a lost VAT battle with HMRC.

IntegraFin bear points

  • Shares have underperformed

  • Constant price cuts to remain competitive

Despite this backdrop, foundational progress is being made, which is reflected in improving metrics. Flows are heading upwards, the revenue margin is stabilising and cost growth is being pared back. Since our 2024 Idea on IntegraFin the shares have risen by about a fifth, but with a higher-quality earnings mix than key peers and improved growth prospects, we think there is more to come.

IntegraFin’s proprietary Transact investment platform is used by more than 8,000 financial advisers. Client numbers on the platform rose 5 per cent, year on year, to around 250,000 at the end of 2025.

Transact generates the vast majority of revenue (almost 90 per cent last year) through annual platform charges, with the rest flowing from wrapper fees and dealing charges.

The group’s closest listed peer is AJ Bell. There are some key differences, though: IntegraFin doesn’t offer direct-to-consumer (D2C) products and it returns 100 per cent of interest on cash to clients, unlike AJ Bell which generates a material amount of revenue from customer interest.

Given its footprint in the retail investor market, AJ Bell has different marketing pressures to attract and retain customers. While the jump in customer numbers AJ Bell disclosed in a first-quarter trading update would suggest that is paying off, its shares have been sold down over concerns about rising investment spending.

IntegraFin does not face the same pressures. Its model means its earnings are relatively high-quality, as it isn’t significantly exposed to volatile interest income. The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has previously threatened sectoral intervention on the client interest issue, and while a material adverse outcome is unlikely, this is still a risk that IntegraFin doesn’t have to worry about.

Transact’s market share has been growing in recent years – its share of UK adviser platform inflows has risen from 13 per cent in 2021 to more than 20 per cent in each of the past three years. While 18 price cuts in the past 17 years highlight the challenge of remaining competitive in the market, it looks as though management has struck the right balance, and current pricing leaves IntegraFin well-placed for growth.

The group also owns Time4Advice, a subsidiary that offers advisers client relationship management (CRM) software. This generates a small amount of revenue for the group – just 3 per cent of the total pie last year.

More important to IntegraFin is its platform revenue margin, which measures total platform revenue against average funds under direction (FUD) and fell by 5 per cent to 22.4 basis points in 2025. Management expects this drop to slow in 2026.

Meanwhile, the adjusted operating margin was 41 per cent last year and is expected to rise in the coming years, with Deutsche Bank expecting almost 50 per cent by 2028.

Analysts at RBC Capital Markets forecast compound annual earnings per share growth of 13 per cent between 2025 and 2028. That puts IntegraFin “among the higher-growth UK wealth names”.

Growth prospects are supported by a healthy and debt-free balance sheet. The company had £231mn of net cash at the latest year end (September 2025). Cash generated from operations rose by a fifth to more than £340mn.

The balance sheet supports a growing dividend, but given the expected path of earnings growth in the next few years there is also the possibility that share buybacks could be on the table.

IntegraFin’s latest trading figures, for the first quarter to 31 December, were encouraging. The group reported record FUD on the Transact platform, up 17 per cent year on year to £77.2bn.

Net inflows were up 13 per cent to £1.04bn, with gross flows helped by market share strength. The analyst consensus is for net flows to improve by £200mn this financial year, then by the same amount again in 2027 and 2028.

As with flows, costs are a key focus for investors, and inflation here has hit the shares. Underlying administrative expenses grew by 9 per cent in 2025 – a quicker pace than the 8 per cent increase in the top line, driven by an 11 per cent rise in staff costs.

After the completion of a group review, cost growth guidance was reiterated this month. Management expects underlying administrative expenses to rise by 3 per cent in 2026 and 2027, well down on the 2025 rate. The rate of growth in staff numbers is now being reduced without damaging new business, as the group continues to invest in technology, software and IT.

As the revenue margin stabilises, the cutting of cost growth will help deliver operating leverage as IntegraFin has more of a fixed cost base than rivals.

IntegraFin trades on 18 times forward consensus earnings for 2026, against a five-year average of 22 times. That rating places it on a par with AJ Bell and sector darling St James’s Place (STJ), albeit as a wealth manager rather than a higher-margin investment platform the premium placed on the latter is a sign of slightly different qualities.

A mean analyst target price of almost 410p suggests IntegraFin is on a discount of about 15 per cent to fair value. The group is building the foundations for a brighter future and its valuation suggests that an improved earnings growth outlook is available at a reasonable price.

Company Details Name Mkt Cap Price 52-Wk Hi/Lo
IntegraFin  (IHP) £1.17bn 357p 398p / 263p
Size/Debt NAV per share* Net Cash / Debt(-) Net Debt / Ebitda Op Cash/ Ebitda
68p £255mn - -
Valuation Fwd PE (+12mths) Fwd DY (+12mths) FCF yld (+12mths) EV/Sales
17 3.7% 5.4% 4.7
Quality/ Growth EBIT Margin ROCE 5yr Sales CAGR 5yr EPS CAGR
- - 13.7% 2.5%
Forecasts/ Momentum Fwd EPS grth NTM Fwd EPS grth STM 3-mth Mom 3-mth Fwd EPS change%
14% 13% -2.6% 4.2%
Year End 30 Sep Sales (£mn) Profit before tax (£mn) EPS (p) DPS (p)
2023 135 63.0 15.2 10.2
2024 145 70.6 16.2 10.4
2025 157 75.0 17.4 11.3
f’cst 2026 175 87.8 20.0 12.8
f’cst 2027 190 98.6 22.5 14.2
chg (%) +9 +12 +13 +11
Source: FactSet, adjusted PTP and EPS figures. NTM = Next Twelve Months. STM = Second Twelve Months (ie one year from now)
The Editor

The takeover frenzy shows no signs of slowing down

Evidence of an M&A slowdown is scant so far

Rosie Carr

London has been an easy hunting ground for bargain-seeking predators in recent years. Hundreds of companies have disappeared from the UK market through takeovers, take-privates, mergers and relistings in other markets, with the wave of deals impacting all sectors. High-profile exits include the £5.4bn acquisition of Hargreaves Lansdown, which is back in the news this week following wholesale changes to its fees under the new owners – read more on how that affects you here

High-tech instruments maker Spectris was acquired for £4.8bn at the end of last year in a period of weakness. Chip designer Alphawave was bought for £1.8bn. The acquisition of Dowlais by American Axle will complete next week.

A shrinking market is a problem for investors, but also for the UK’s financial and professional services sector. This “strategic national asset”, which is being tested at the same time by the rise of other financial centres, provides one in every 13 jobs in the UK and contributes £12 in every £100 of tax paid, says a new report, No Time to Lose, by TheCityUK and PwC. PwC modelling shows that with support, the industry could generate up to £53bn in additional economic output by 2035. Without support, the sector will decline further.

However, the takeover frenzy should in theory be slowing as the undervaluation problem in the market becomes less acute, aided by lower interest rates, investors’ need to diversify away from US tech, rising demand for defence and mining shares, and mounting initiatives to draw investors, companies, and capital back to the City. Retail investors are a particular target here given their generally low levels of investing – allowing for a substantial cash emergency stash, Barclays Bank has estimated that savers in the UK are sitting on around £430bn of savings that could be suitable for investing. Continuing reforms are vital if the IPO market is to revive, though. 

Still, the first few weeks of the year have already yielded several takeover deals, such as British Land’s purchase of Life Sciences Reit (which is already in the process of winding down), and other bid offers that may or may not succeed. They include Zurich Insurance’s attempt to buy reinsurer and cyber security specialist Beazley for £7.7bn, following a period of weak performance by the latter and a view that premium growth will continue to slow. RBC notes Beazley’s “strong positioning”, but concludes that consolidation at a reasonable premium could be in the best long-term interests of shareholders. Peel Hunt points to the company’s attractive underwriting margins and says that, while the offer is tempting, it should be weighed against the long-term value of Beazley’s investments in Bermuda and the US. Beazley has in any case rejected the proposal, arguing that it fundamentally undervalues the company, but its Swiss suitor’s offer managed to put a spring in the share prices of peers Hiscox and Lancashire.

Oxford BioMedica has received a new unsolicited bid from EQT, now under consideration by the board. Meanwhile, Auction Technology Group continues to be pursued by investment firm FitzWalter, which holds a stake of more than 20 per cent in the group according to FactSet. It reckons that ATG has destroyed value through deals such as the purchase of furniture restorer Chairish last year. It has now made a final offer of 400p a share – its previous 360p offer was dismissed by ATG, with analysts at Berenberg calling it “highly opportunistic”. The ATG board, which released a robust Q1 trading update last week, has insisted that its “network effect” model and value-added services can stop the share price slide and unlock value. Finally, Spire Healthcare, which has been under pressure from an NHS squeeze and is conducting a strategic review of its business, has revealed it is in early-stage talks with private equity.

Takeovers are a normal facet of a (healthy) market, and bring real benefits. They provide an opportunity for investors to exit at a premium (usually), and are particularly welcome where a company’s share price has been drifting for a long period, providing capital that can be recycled into another share. Bids can shake things up, as has happened in the investment trust sector. But if buyers walk away, the share price can bear the brunt of investors’ disappointment. At the bottom of the cap scale, this week saw nano materials developer Nanoco Group’s decision to call a halt to a sale process (with no deal in sight) drive its share price down to 7.5p, a halving since August. Giving up on a company can mean missing its recovery, or most lucrative years. Indeed, as Paul Jackson outlines in his latest No Free Lunch column, a single activist’s desire for greater short-term gains is driving a campaign to oust five directors at Marston’s. That is despite its share price doubling over the past two years, with potentially more to come.

Feature

Three easy steps to becoming a stress-free investor

Even long-term investors can succumb to short-term worry. Alex Newman explains how to reduce the load and increase focus

Alex Newman

Picture the scene: it’s February 2026, and Donald Trump has changed his mind. After the president orders a military invasion of Greenland, Europe responds by expelling the US from Nato and announcing a Russia-grade sanctions package on America and Trump’s coterie. In a flash, transatlantic trade crashes.

How’s that globally diversified stock portfolio looking? It ends the year down 35 per cent, but the pain isn’t over. As the fallout intensifies, inflation rockets and Vladimir Putin exploits the chaos to invade Estonia, European investors pull out of US assets, triggering a collapse in global stocks, bonds and a major Wall Street bank.

At the end of year two, your pivot to fixed income has backfired badly, and your portfolio is down another third.

This isn’t a forecast; heaven knows the world has enough apocalyptic scenarios to chew over. But you get the idea. For the long-term investor, the short term is swamped with reasons to worry. And that’s before all the long-term reasons to worry.

But while a spiking gold price tells one story about risk sentiment, stock markets remain calm. Given the success of dip-buying in recent years, this isn’t a surprise. After all, it’s been two-and-a-half decades since the bursting of the dotcom bubble, when it took the FTSE All-Share 1,167 days (and the S&P 500 slightly less) to stop falling. While we’ve seen sharper sell-offs since, none has been as prolonged.

“If you’ve got a £1mn pension pot, you really need a strong stomach to decide you’re happy to go through a period like 2000 to 2003,” notes Paul Campion, a chartered financial planner at Chartered FP. “Since then, every significant drawdown for a diversified portfolio has been one year – even Covid. We’ve all forgotten how painful markets can be.”

Even if you escape these once-in-a-generation events (and the historical record suggests you won’t), many individuals decide that equities’ rewards aren’t worth the risks or the sleepless nights.

This isn’t irrational. For those with precarious earnings, or with much of their net worth tied up in a business, keeping as much cash on hand for the biggest bumps ahead can make sense.

But even for those lucky enough to have stable occupations, pension contributions and investments don’t always feel like other money. They are the opportunity cost of spending foregone, and the remainder of all labours and life choices after the necessaries are accounted for.

What finance professionals casually call a “market correction” might represent the hardest-fought product of years of work. And it could be years before those values recover, if they ever do. The savings and mortgage markets are fought over a few basis points. So why should the other half of financial services blithely assume that violent swings in capital and net worth will ever be tolerable?

There are three ways to answer this question. With the right framing, each can help you to feel happier about building wealth for the long term.

Life, or what academics like to call “decision-making under conditions of uncertainty”, doesn’t come with a manual.

But while each of us will face change, setbacks and surprises, intuition can get us quite far. Because the future is uncertain, most of us recognise the need to prepare. Deciding to prepare isn’t a tough one. How we define preparation – how much, when to start, when to stop, and how to do it – is tough, of course.

For many people, the biggest conundrum is how much risk to take. And in the UK, it’s clear that the R-word has some dirty connotations. A 2024 survey of British attitudes to investing found that more than one in 10 attributed the US’s wider embrace of stock market investing to “greed”. This Hargreaves Lansdown poll also found that just 23 per cent of Brits have invested in the stock market, versus two-thirds of Americans.

Our relationship with cash tells another story. Bank of England data shows that the amount of cash held in savings accounts paying zero per cent interest has climbed 80 per cent in the past decade, to £303bn. While deposits held in cash Isas, easy-access and timed savings accounts all also climbed (particularly during the pandemic years), much of the 10-year increase is accounted for by interest paid at the prevailing rate.

Sure, a good chunk of the rise in interest-free deposits will mirror the spare cash funds of the country’s wealthiest. But spend just a few minutes on the forums of Money Saving Expert and you quickly see how much energy is channelled into a financial asset with limited prospects of a real return (that is, after inflation).

The big argument for cash is that it never loses value, at least in nominal terms. And unless you choose to park it in a fixed-term deposit, it’s liquid.

But is cash a risk-free asset? While we often treat it as such, long-term investors with large cash allocations must roll over their deposits many times, and at an uncertain rate of interest. Although fixed-term deposits can improve that certainty, they tend to offer weaker rates than government bonds.

As detailed in UBS’s latest Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2025, cash generated an average real return of 1 per cent per year in the UK between 1900 and 2024, but carried just under a third of the average annual volatility of equities (given their sensitivity to changes in interest rates and inflation).

For those hoping to reduce (or replace) investing risk using cash, it’s crucial to see the real trade-offs.

To illustrate this, I’ve compared two types of long-term portfolios – one fully allocated to UK stocks, the other to interest-paying cash deposits – using the same volatility and total real return data from the UBS study. Given these time series date back to 1900, and therefore encompass several enormously volatile periods of British and world history, they can help to picture a wide range of conditions and possible outcomes.

This is done by conducting 1,000 simulations for each portfolio, all involving a few assumptions. These include equally sized annual contributions throughout the life of the portfolio, zero withdrawals and a normal distribution of volatility and returns.

The real world is rarely so neat and straightforward. However, the volume of simulations can still put us in the ballpark. As the boxplot shows, the range of investment outcomes – both the extreme values (those whiskers at either end of each row) and the likeliest returns (those boxes) – steadily narrow for both cash and stocks, over time.

For the risk-averse, this is a potential source of comfort: over longer horizons, the chance of a catastrophic loss to the portfolio’s cumulative value should diminish, providing ample time to move into safer assets the closer you are to needing them.

At the same time, it highlights the opportunity cost. Over a 40-year stretch, a diehard equity investor could count themselves statistically very unlucky if they had achieved only the median return of an all-cash investor. Conversely, achieving a median equity return would require one-in-a-1,000 fortune from the all-cash investor (even assuming ruthless efficient management of that cash).

What’s more, we should remember that these are compound annual growth rates, rather than terminal portfolio values. While the all-cash investor will always be able to predict theirs with greater accuracy, the average equity investor will have twice as much. That’s regardless of duration; stretch the horizon to 40 years, and the all-stock investor might finish with 10, 20 or 25 times more capital at the top end.

If stocks feel like a rollercoaster, it may be because you’re not looking far enough ahead. But if you’ve decided to get off the ride, or want to drop your exposure significantly, the path to happiness requires making peace with the likelihood of lower returns. And even if those returns never go negative, they may still constitute a real-terms loss.

Of course, building wealth isn’t just about risk appetite. Changing how much you can put into a pension or investment account can matter just as much, if not more for those closer to retirement.

Many items on the personal finance checklist, such as setting a budget, cutting unnecessary outgoing and clearing high-interest debt, will feel familiar. But it can still pay to revisit these possible quick wins, both for the extra cash it might free up, and the sense of control it can bring.

Nor is day-to-day money management always straightforward, even for the shrewdest of book-keepers. “Most people are good at monthly budgeting and working out their regular spending,” notes Campion. “But the hard bit is the irregular stuff: the cost of property repairs, big-ticket items and replacements, all of which we need to consider.” 

Extrapolate our above attempts at portfolio modelling, and it’s clear that the median all-cash investor’s clearest path to average equity returns is to double their level of investment. For those in higher income tax brackets, the surest way to achieve this is to increase any tax-free pension contributions to low-cost money market funds.

In practice, however, doubling your savings isn’t viable for anyone already taking an active approach to their long-term finances. Save for the most dedicated members of the Financial Independence, Retire Early (Fire) movement – who in any case tend to pair extreme savings habits with aggressive investing – smaller changes are the only real option.

“Very few people can maintain the full-blown Fire thing to the point where it makes a material difference,” says Campion. “We can all make savings and changes; but it’s about understanding what we want from the future, and what we want from the present. I drive a nice car; I understand this affects my retirement age.”

Still, Campion offers a few tips for those looking to increase their contributions. A client who gets a 4 per cent pay raise might be coached “to pay themselves half of the extra income and half to their pension”. Clearing a mortgage, or watching other large ongoing costs disappear offers a window to budget again before “expenditure creep” sets in. Then there are the changes to lifestyle or mindset – “the BMW on a £500 monthly lease, when a Ford will do the same job for half the cost”.

Although self investment doesn’t always offer a neat route to greater happiness, the biggest opportunity available to most of us is improving our skills (or acquiring new ones). And no, that isn’t shorthand for becoming a landlord.

“A big conversation I often have, particularly with younger clients, is around buy-to-let,” notes Campion. “They’re still in career mode, which often means their salary pays much better per hour than the extra work required to manage a rental. Depending on their job and how much they like doing it, it might be a smarter use of time and energy to work and invest more.”

The problem with stocks is that there are always 100 reasons to sell (or avoid the asset class altogether).

But the lesson of recent stock market history is that with proper diversification, time and patience, individuals are taking a lot less risk than they think with equities. That, in part, explains the government’s decision to reduce the cash allowance in Isas from £20,000 to £12,000 for individuals aged 64 or under from the start of the 2027-28 tax year.

Savers also need to wise up to the risks of risk aversion. While we can’t predict interest rates, inflation or asset returns, the nature of cash means its real returns will always be slight, thereby making the savings challenge steep. As we have seen, history suggests that to have a fair chance of funding in real terms what today is considered a comfortable standard of living for an individual in retirement, the all-cash investor would need to pay in £15,000 a year for four decades. And once Isas’ cash limit drops, a growing portion of savings could be taxed.

For Campion, this is where the reality of savings hope starts to bite. “Volatility is the thing people are most scared of, but the thing they’re at greatest risk from is the failure to put together a financial plan,” he argues.

The answer? For those who still worry about stocks’ tendency to all sell off in unison, the use of assets with low or negative correlation (such as precious metals, or alternative investment trusts, or fixed income) is one option.

But some allocation to equities always makes sense. The chart below shows the rolling 10-year annualised total returns from the FTSE All-Share and MSCI World indices for the past three decades. While the long-term average returns are both around 5 per cent – and therefore close to the long-term UK averages in the UBS report – I’ve adjusted them using the more conservative retail price index (RPI), which the Office for Budget Responsibility has estimated to be 0.9 percentage points a year higher than the now more widely favoured consumer price index (CPI).

One way to read this chart is that outside of a brief window between 2008 and 2011, when the 10-year record reflected two massive drawdowns, the real return from equities has been continually positive and has rarely dipped below 2 per cent. Stretch out the period of rolling returns to two decades, and that time spent in the red shrinks further.

This doesn’t mean those real returns will always stay above the 0 per cent break-even line. But to stay happy, you need to see stocks’ volatility as both normal and the price for improving your long-term investing odds. Automate, diversify and even adopt an active approach to stockpicking. Just don’t watch the clock.