Small Companies

This tech stock has landed another huge contract

Simon Thompson: A $200mn deal is material to the group’s order book and is not accounted for in analyst forecasts

Simon Thompson
Simon Thompson

• $200mn formal written award

• Forward PE ratios of 18.8 (2026) and 17.5 (2027)

• £40.2mn (16.1p) free cash flow forecast over next two financial years

Aim-traded SRT Marine Systems (SRT: 77p), a global leader in technology used to track maritime vessels, has announced a $200mn (£147mn) formal written award, subject to completion of the project contract and a project financing package, albeit neither of which is guaranteed.

The undisclosed customer is a sovereign state that faces maritime domain challenges (smuggling, illegal border incursions and illegal fishing) across an extensive national marine domain, all of which pose a material risk to the economic and social development of the country. The SRT marine domain awareness system being acquired will provide extensive maritime intelligence and insight, enable the relevant marine agencies to adopt an intelligence-led operations doctrine, and assist in detecting, neutralising and deterring such illegal activities.

When active, the new contract will add to the group’s existing £330mn active contract book, which is being implemented for five sovereign states. Importantly, the directors confirm that steady progress is being made in accordance with contracted obligations, project plans, customer payment schedules and milestone deliverables. This adds weight to house broker Cavendish Capital’s expectations that pre-tax profit will more than double to £10.2mn on 49 per cent higher revenue of £116mn in the 12 months to 30 June 2026, rising to pre-tax profit of £11.1mn from revenue of £123mn in the following year. While SRT’s £1.4bn validated sales pipeline included the latest contract win, the above forecasts do not, so offering potential for material earnings upgrades when the project commences.

SRT’s share price has more than doubled since I initiated coverage (Alpha Research: ‘Set sail for a profitable voyage’, 16 August 2019), but has seen some profit-taking after hitting an all-time high (89.75p) following my last update (‘This tech stock is at an all-time high — and there’s more to come’, 30 July 2025).

Trading on forward price/earnings (PE) ratios of 18.8 and 17.5 over the two-year forecast period, and with earnings upgrades likely once work commences on the $200mn contract, I feel that Cavendish’s £250mn target equity valuation (100p) is achievable. Moreover, buoyed by the delivery of the bumper order book, forecast free cash flow of £23.3mn (2026) and £16.9mn (2027) underpin net cash estimates of £16mn (2026) and £32.9mn (2027). Buy.

Special offer. Simon Thompson’s books Successful Stock Picking Strategies and Stock Picking for Profit can be purchased online at www.yorkbookshop.com at the special discounted price of £5 per book plus UK P & P of £5.15, or £10 for both books plus UK P & P of £5.75, subject to stock availability.

They include case studies of Simon’s market-beating Bargain Share Portfolio companies, outlining the characteristics that made them successful investments. Simon also highlights many other investment approaches and stock screens he uses to identify small-cap companies with investment potential. Full details of the content of the books can be viewed on www.yorkbookshop.com.

News

VCT stalwarts sit out fundraising season

The bid for funds has kicked off, but some big names are missing

Dave Baxter
Dave Baxter

Fundraising for venture capital trusts (VCTs) has kicked off in earnest for the 2025-26 tax year, but the absence of two sector stalwarts points to an industry in transition.

Investors can technically buy VCTs on the secondary market, but these do not qualify for their generous tax reliefs, meaning these fundraising efforts are the best way to get in.

In what has become a common occurrence, multiple VCTs have unveiled their fundraising plans as the summer ends.

The first half of September alone has seen Triple Point Venture (TPV) launch a £30mn fundraising, with Guinness VCT (GVCT) looking to raise £15mn, the Puma Aim VCT (PAIM) seeking £20mn and Pembroke VCT (PEMB) £60mn.

But the largest VCT, Octopus Titan (OTV2), is sitting out fundraising for the second year in a row, with a recent market announcement suggesting this could be the case for the foreseeable future. This follows a strategic review last year that resulted in a cut in fees paid to the investment manager. But the trust has more work to do.

“Only when the board is convinced that Titan is operating at or close to sustainable levels is it likely that Titan will seek to fundraise and make new investments, with a modified investment strategy focused on later-stage companies in the fintech and healthcare technology sectors,” the trust’s board said last week.

Higher returns and cash exits will determine this ‘sustainability’, the directors added.

The VCT did not raise funds in the last tax year, but in past years had gone to the market to raise hundreds of millions of pounds.

The Gresham House VCTs (GVH1 and GHV2), will also not come to the market for funds this time around, meaning multiple major absences this year.

Despite the lack of these VCTs in the end-of-summer fundraising round, Nick Hyett, an investment manager at Wealth Club, said supply remained plentiful, at over £1bn announced so far.

“The problem is the VCTs that are popular see a lot of demand very quickly,” he said. “Names like British Smaller Companies (BSV) will go quite fast.”

Ben Yearsley, investment director at Fairview Investing and a longtime VCT fan, pointed to the likes of Pembroke, Maven’s offerings and British Smaller Companies as products he still rates. But he warned that investors might have to be “more circumspect” on the sector in general.

This relates to the fact that VCTs have changed significantly in the past decade.

Rule changes that kicked in from late 2015 meant that VCTs could no longer invest in management buyouts, and had to invest in less mature, more ‘knowledge-intensive’ companies.

Yearsley fears that it remains unclear which of the riskier, newer investments in VCT portfolios are working well.

Meanwhile, Aim-focused VCTs are still struggling to find places to invest, given the lack of IPOs in the junior market. That has seen some VCTs attempt to shift to an “Aim-plus” mandate which also includes investing in private businesses.

Ideas

UK banks are underperforming – but why don’t markets care?

Investor insight from our sister title’s annual rankings

Alex Newman
Alex Newman

Each year, our sister publication The Banker compiles a database of the world’s top 1,000 lenders.

Though it’s not aimed at DIY investors, I decided to give the newly released 2025 edition a glance. After all, banks have made large contributions to UK market returns of late, with 43 per cent of the FTSE 100’s capital growth and a fifth of its dividends coming from the sector’s five big names in the past two years. No wonder there is growing speculation that the upcoming Budget will include new levies on the sector.

Thumb through the list, however, and the quintet of Barclays (BARC), HSBC (HSBA), Lloyds (LLOY), StanChart (STAN) and NatWest (NWG), looks a lot less enticing than its peers. The group’s average ratio of tier one capital to total assets – which The Banker refers to as the ‘soundness’ ratio – stood at 4.45 per cent at the end of 2024. Today, it’s 4.37 per cent, versus 6.78 per cent for the five largest US banks.

Nor, at first glance, do returns on assets impress. The quintet’s average of 0.58 per cent in 2024 compared with a mean of 1.04 per cent across the top 1,000. In the 12 months to June, that figure improved to 0.69 per cent, but remained far short of the 1.1 per cent average of leading US lenders. 

Undercapitalised and underperforming? Then why have total returns from shares in the clique beaten the average of JPMorgan (US:JPM), BoA (US:BAC), Citi (US:C), Wells Fargo (US:WFC) and Goldman Sachs (US:GS) over one, two, three and five years?

Granted, the upward revision of what were until recently some very depressed multiples has helped. But dig into UK banks’ financial statements, and it also appears the market has got things about right.

For one, while The Banker’s soundness ratio helps to compare lenders with differing regulatory standards and balance sheet sizes, it doesn’t tell us much about lending risk. And because risk-weighted assets (RWAs) make up just 26 per cent of the UK lenders’ total assets (versus 45 per cent for their US counterparts), their Basel III-defined capital buffers are in much better shape. Compare tier one capital to RWAs, and UK banks’ cushions are at 17 per cent, two percentage points up on the US lenders.

On one measure, this also makes the UK banks more profitable. Collectively, their ratio of pre-tax profits to RWAs hit 2.67 per cent in the 12 months to June, 24 basis points ahead of the US grouping, which helps explain why average returns on capital were 16 per cent for both cohorts.

Does this suggest UK lenders have been over-earning relative to their loan risk? It’s a subjective (and now political) call, even putting to one side differences in business models and lending focus. Nevertheless, it shows just how profitable the hyper-competitive world of UK mortgage lending can still be, when a lender can properly manage its interest rate sensitivities and rely on an apparently yield-agnostic retail deposit base.

Either way, such observations might be more difficult to make this time next year. That’s because at its current rate of growth, Lion Finance (BGEO) looks a cert to jump from the FTSE 250 to the blue-chip index.

Despite a backdrop of huge geopolitical and domestic turmoil, a combination of strong tourism, foreign investment and solid exports mean the Caucasian nation’s economy is roaring. That in turn has powered the Tbilisi-headquartered lender formerly known as the Bank of Georgia into the top 1 per cent of lenders for both returns on assets and capital.

Although the proportion of its RWAs – more than double the UK lender average at 55.6 per cent – has boosted returns, capital buffers are also much higher. At the pre-tax level, its return on risk assets sits at 7.9 per cent – more than double that of JPMorgan. Should UK political expediency arrest investors’ newfound love for UK high-street banks, they may soon turn to this altogether dicier lending prospect.

FINANCIAL PLANNING AND EDUCATION

What to make of the Autumn Budget speculation

Don’t plan your finances around tax changes that may or may not happen

Val Cipriani
Val Cipriani

Speculation season is in full swing. In the months leading up to the autumn Budget, it has become standard for a deluge of possible measures to be floated in the press, sometimes as a result of government leaks. Property taxes will be reformed, pension tax relief will be cut, gifting rules will be tightened . . . all options get their time in the sun.

But the truth is, we just don’t know. We can’t rule anything out. Chancellor Rachel Reeves is in a tight spot: if she wants to stick with her self-imposed fiscal rules, she will probably need to either cut spending or increase taxes – perhaps both. The government has also promised not to increase taxes on “working people”, which leaves precious little space for manoeuvre.

All the tax changes mentioned above are possible, but for this very reason, managing your finances by trying to guess which will materialise is grasping at straws. So this is your yearly reminder not to panic ahead of the Budget.

Some fresh figures bring the dangers of speculation into sharp relief. According to data from the Financial Conduct Authority, savers took out £10.7bn in tax-free lump sums from their pensions in the six months to 31 March 2025. This is the period that includes last year’s Autumn Budget and the month leading up to it.

The figure marks a 41 per cent increase on the previous six months, and a 76.3 per cent increase on the six months to March 2024. Overall, in 2024-25 savers took £18.7bn (35.9 per cent) more from their pensions than they had done the year before.

There are two factors at play here: the government’s decision to apply inheritance tax (IHT) to pensions from April 2027, which was announced in the Autumn Budget; and fears over the tax-free lump sum being scrapped in the run-up to it.

“While some savers and retirees will doubtless have taken their tax-free cash as part of a well-thought-out plan, you can’t help feeling that much of this increase is a slightly panicked dive into pensions sparked by uncertainty over policy change,” says Emma Sterland, chief financial planning officer at Evelyn Partners.

In the end, there was no particular advantage in taking money out of your pension before the Budget: the tax-free lump sum survived unscathed, while the IHT changes were announced well in advance, giving people time to plan.

When it comes to pensions, things rarely happen overnight; protections are typically put in place to mitigate the impact of the changes on people who had been making long-term plans based on the previous system.

“Taking tax-free cash early, without a particular need for it, means that you are taking funds that are growing in a tax-protected environment to one where they could be subject to capital gains, dividend or savings interest taxation,” Sterland explains. “Many people last year who withdrew their tax-free lump sum purely due to Budget fears found themselves trying to reverse the process when nothing happened – with varying degrees of success.”

It is happening again this year. Advisers say they spend a lot of time talking about potential Budget changes with their clients, trying to make sure they don’t do anything rash. If you were going to take your tax-free cash out anyway soon and have a purpose for it, then you can consider getting the process started. But otherwise, you risk doing your finances more harm than good.

Companies

Advanced Medical Solutions beds in its acquisitions

The wound treatment company is performing well despite challenges

Julian Hofmann
Julian Hofmann
  • Needs time to bed in Peters Surgical

  • Recovery in core business

Interim results for Aim-traded wound-care specialist Advanced Medical Solutions (AMS) had a transitional feel due to the acquisition of sutures company Peters Surgical for €141mn (£121mn) at the end of the same period in 2024.  

The impact of the acquisition was apparent in sales for the surgical division, which climbed by 81 per cent to £87.9mn. While the acquisition more than doubled divisional revenues, it also weighed on profitability, with the adjusted cash profit margin down by 730 basis points to 24.9 per cent. Management noted that Peters Surgical currently runs at lower margins than the legacy surgical business.

The wound-care division, led by its flagship Liquiband product, posted a more modest 17 per cent increase in revenues to £22.9mn, although margins here improved by 160 basis points to 13.2 per cent, thanks to stronger volumes and a better product mix. That growth helped offset the ongoing drag from falling royalties from its patent licensing agreement with US wound-care company Organogenesis.

The recovery in the wound-care division seemed to take analysts by surprise. Peel Hunt’s Miles Dixon noted: “Having spoken to management, we understand that this growth is not expected to repeat in the second half and does not need to for guidance to be met, as it reflects recovery from lows and successful restructuring.”

Current consensus puts revenues for 2025 at £229mn, with cash profits of £50mn.

As a medical device company, AMS’s price/earnings ratio of 21.5 for 2026, based on Peel Hunt’s forecasts, is good value compared with the rest of the sector. Despite share price attrition, we would like to see how the group performs on a comparable basis. Hold.

Last IC view: Hold, 254p, 18 Sep 2024

ADVANCED MEDICAL SOLUTIONS (AMS)  
ORD PRICE: 215p MARKET VALUE: £472mn
TOUCH: 214-216p 12-MONTH HIGH: 275p LOW: 168p
DIVIDEND YIELD: 1.2% PE RATIO: 51
NET ASSET VALUE: 117p* NET DEBT:  25%
Half-year to 30 Jun Turnover (£mn) Pre-tax profit (£mn) Earnings per share (p) Dividend per share (p)
2024 68.0 5.70 1.95 0.77
2025 111 8.46 2.89 0.85
% change +63 +49 +48 +10
Ex-div: 25 Sep
Payment: 24 Oct
*Includes intangible assets of £213mn, or 97p a share
FINANCIAL PLANNING AND EDUCATION

Six steps to pass on a portfolio

Planning for the worst-case scenario and getting your assets in order can give you and your family peace of mind

Jemma Slingo
Jemma Slingo

In idle moments, it’s fun to imagine what you would do with a big lump of cash. A lottery win, perhaps, or a windfall from a long-lost aunt.

Thinking about passing on money is considerably less pleasant. Estate planning can feel like a morbid affair, given the inevitable focus on death. It is necessary, however. Getting your investments in order before you pass away can spare your loved ones a great deal of pain – both emotional and financial.

How to pass assets down to children is a key consideration for many people, but it’s not the only one. Spouses are often first in line to inherit. Despite their older age, ‘baby boomers’ could account for half of global wealth transfers in the next decade, according to EY, with women set to be the main beneficiaries.

Each situation comes with its own challenges. Regardless of who you plan to leave your estate to, however, a few basic steps can ward off problems down the line.

It is easy to accumulate lots of bank accounts, Isas, pensions and insurance policies over time. And nowadays, there is often no paper trail. 

“Think about compiling them in one document or a spreadsheet, and making sure your family knows where it is,” says Alice Guy, an independent pension expert and chartered accountant. “For probate, they will need to find everything. Having it all in one place could speed up the process and make it a bit less stressful.”

Obtaining a grant of probate is not the only hurdle. When someone dies, loved ones sometimes have to submit a tax return on their behalf. This is nigh on impossible if your finances are a black box.

Start by making a list of the assets you have, which provider they are with, and roughly how much they are worth. Beware of listing passwords, however. When someone dies, executors of the will should not use passwords or PINs to access their online accounts. In fact, they could run into legal trouble if they do so. Instead, they need to go directly to the companies to gain access. 

Categorising your investments means your beneficiaries are less likely to miss out on money that’s rightfully theirs. This is a big problem. The UK is home to a staggering £50bn of ‘dormant’ assets, according to 2022 estimates, consisting of everything from pensions to Premium Bonds. 

If step one proves arduous, it might be the moment for a spring clean.

“During a very difficult time for a bereaved survivor, there is some comfort in dealing with an estate that is administratively simple,” says Lisa Whiting from Fidelity’s wealth management team.

If you have lots of paper share certificates, you may want to digitise them. Most of the big investment platforms will allow you to do this, and it typically involves filling in a Certificateless Registry for Electronic Share Transfer (Crest) form.

You may also want to consolidate your pensions, close old bank accounts, and deal with particularly fiddly things such as foreign assets. If you have very small amounts invested in certain funds or shares, it might also be time to cut them loose. 

When it comes to estate planning, making a will is the single most important thing you can do. And yet, 53 per cent of adults aged between 50 and 64 do not have one.

Efforts are being made to address this. ‘Free Wills Month’ is a UK-wide campaign, where charities partner with solicitors to offer over-55s the chance to have a simple will written or updated for free. It is due to kick off again in October. However, if your circumstances are more complex, it is probably worth paying for tailored support.

Once you have made a will, there are a couple of other documents to attend to. Pensions are not usually covered by your will. Instead, you have to fill in an ‘expression of wish form’ to tell the scheme provider who you would like to inherit your savings. They will usually follow your wishes, but they are not legally bound by them. 

“You could get a scenario where someone has got divorced but still has their ex-wife as the beneficiary of their pension because they hadn’t updated it,” says Guy. “The pension company would then have to make a decision.”

Last but not least: sort out a lasting power of attorney (LPA). An LPA is a legal document that lets you appoint people to make decisions on your behalf, if you lose mental capacity. This is clearly a major decision, and many people instruct a solicitor to help. 

So far, there has been a lot of paperwork. Talking is a key part of passing on a portfolio, however. 

‘‘It’s about being transparent,” says Jack Cornell, a relationship manager at Fidelity. “I think, as a country, we’re not particularly good at that. But you need to think about the people who will inherit the money, and what their objectives are. It’s not nice to have morbid conversations – but it’s prudent to have a plan in place.”

In couples, there is often one person who handles the finances and another who is less involved. This can cause issues if the savvy investor dies first. It’s useful, therefore, to have conversations well in advance. 

The first thing to cover is the current state of the household finances; your list will come in handy here. Once that’s ticked off, however, you can look to the future. Would your partner prefer risky or less risky investments? Do they want to manage an extensive portfolio? And what do they actually want to do with the money? Research suggests that women are more likely to want to pass on wealth in their lifetime than men, for example. 

Getting children involved can also be helpful. “There’s real value in taking an intergenerational approach,” says Robin Melley, managing director of Matrix Capital Financial Planning. “We’ve had some really fabulous outcomes where we’ve managed to persuade mum and dad – who came for advice – to involve their children.”

These conversations lead neatly on to step five: review your investment approach. For starters, do you want to stay invested in the first place? Much of this will depend on who you are leaving your investments to, what they will use the money for, and how long before they need to use it.

Assuming you’re happy to stay invested, now might be a good moment to re-evaluate your portfolio. If your partner is not keen on DIY investing, could you trim your exposure to individual stocks and active funds and opt for a multi-asset fund offering a ‘ready-made’ portfolio instead. You could also choose a small selection of passive trackers, but these still require reviewing and rebalancing over time, so your partner will need a degree of understanding of investing to keep on top of things.

There is also a question of how many investments are too many. For example, Fidelity customers with portfolios of between £100,000 and £200,000 have an average of eight fund holdings. And those with larger portfolios don’t keep buying more and more, with the number plateauing at roughly 17 for clients with between £500,000 and £800,000.

For couples intending to pass assets to each other, joint ownership is also something to consider. This is because it will ensure accounts pass immediately to the survivor, without the need for a lengthy probate process.

“That can be convenient,” says Robin Melley. “But you have to take a holistic approach and consider other factors like inheritance tax planning. Owning assets jointly does simplify matters, but sometimes that simplification can unwind some of the planning.”

Isas cannot be held jointly. But it is possible to pass an Isa to your spouse or civil partner and keep the tax benefits, thanks to something called the “additional permitted subscription” (APS) allowance.

Regardless of who the contents of the Isa have been left to, your partner will inherit this allowance from you. This sits on top of the usual £20,000 limit and is the value of the Isa on the day someone dies or when the account closes (whichever is higher).

Jemma Slingo writes about investing for fund manager Fidelity International

Ideas

Global Ideas: A French comms giant Joel Greenblatt would love

In the first in a new series, we’re using the famed investor’s method to find promising and lesser-known stocks

Alex Newman
Alex Newman

A fortnight ago, we put the MSCI All-World index through one of our best-performing UK stock screens of recent years.

That methodology – in effect, a distillation of the entire stockpicking process into a single metric – was the ‘acquirer’s multiple’, taken from the book of the same name by the investor Tobias Carlisle.

Another investor who famously boiled down the process into one number was Joel Greenblatt, who unveiled his ‘magic formula’ in 2006’s The Little Book that Beats the Market and which Carlisle refers to heavily in his own work. The methods, as you’ll see, are similar. But whereas Carlisle is happy to hunt for ‘fair businesses at wonderful prices’, Greenblatt (like Warren Buffett) prefers the inverse.

At root, the magic formula takes a standard approach to valuation and adds a twist from market psychology. Like the acquirer’s multiple, its aim is to find stocks with high earnings yields (as a proxy for cheapness). Its difference lies in its insistence that a stock must also show high returns on capital (as a proxy for quality). By ranking all stocks in each screening universe against both fundamentals in turn (which are detailed in full below), and then combining the two scores, you get the ‘magic formula’.

Since we launched our Global Ideas feature in August, we have used screens to highlight interesting and less well-known international stocks. This is a departure from their normal deployment, which is to build ready-made diversified portfolios. In The Little Book . . ., for example, Greenblatt suggests that investors should pick the 30 top-ranking magic formula stocks and hold them for a year, to allow for prices to re-rate and valuations to mean-revert, although his (and our) evidence suggests higher-ranking stocks perform best.

I’m also conscious that a few readers follow Greenblatt’s elegant and proven methodology to the letter. So while I’m going to focus on just one of the high-ranking magic formula stocks here, I’ve included the full list of 30 stocks in the online version of this article for anyone tempted to follow along. Readers trying to replicate the screen will note that I’ve excluded stock exchanges that can be tricky for retail investors to access.

In the coming weeks, I’ll also rerun the screen for the MSCI Emea, Asia-Pacific and Americas indices.

The methodology

Value

Part one of Greenblatt’s method concerns a stock’s earnings yield. This is equivalent to a price/earnings ratio, with the numerator and denominator inverted and expressed as a percentage. Greenblatt’s earnings yield looks at a whole-company valuation by factoring in the value of a company’s net debt or cash as well as the value of its shares (its market capitalisation). The formula’s earnings yield compares its latest earnings before interest and tax (Ebit) with enterprise value (EV). The higher the yield, the better the score.

Quality

To measure quality, Greenblatt looks at how much Ebit is generated relative to a company’s ‘tangible assets’. Tangible assets consist of net working capital added to net fixed assets and should represent the assets that are being used in a company’s operations to generate profits.

Details of the top 10 stocks are contained in the print version of this article, while the online article contains the top 30. I’ve also included a brief write-up of one of the highest-ranking European picks (and which also made the acquirer’s multiple top 10).

Company TIDM Sector Exchange Mkt Cap Fwd NTM PE DY 3-mth Mom EY RoA Magic Formula rank
Nexi IT:NEX Commercial Services Milan £5,573mn 5.5 6.2% 0.0% 21.1% 147.4% 1
Omnicom US:OMC Advertising/Marketing NYSE £11,122mn 8.6 3.8% 8.6% 12.0% 369.8% 2
Geely Automobile HK:175 Motor Vehicles Hong Kong £18,158mn 9.7 1.8% 10.5% 19.1% 97.5% 3
Lenovo HK:992 Computer Hardware Hong Kong £12,719mn 10.7 3.6% 26.8% 11.4% 181.4% 4
Publicis FR:PUB Advertising/Marketing Paris £18,620mn 10.8 4.2% -8.8% 10.1% 376.2% 5
Teleperformance FR:TEP Commercial Services Paris £3,357mn 4.5 6.4% -30.5% 14.0% 70.4% 6
Pandora DK:PNDORA Jewelry Copenhagen £7,873mn 11.5 2.3% -25.5% 9.7% 134.3% 7
Eiffage FR:FGR Engineering & Construction Paris £9,264mn 9.5 4.2% -6.1% 10.3% 77.9% 8
Pfizer US:PFE Pharmaceuticals NYSE £103,763mn 7.9 7.2% 3.1% 10.3% 79.1% 9
Capgemini FR:CAP IT Paris £18,573mn 10.6 2.6% -14.3% 9.5% 110.4% 10
Kraft Heinz Company US:KHC Food: Major Diversified Nasdaq £23,314mn 10.1 6.3% 0.7% 10.8% 69.8% 11
Grupo Aeroportuario del SE MX:ASURB Transportation Mexico £6,987mn 14.6 8.2% 10.2% 9.0% 154.2% 12
Bristol Myers Squibb US:BMY Pharmaceuticals NYSE £71,002mn 7.6 5.5% -3.6% 9.8% 92.0% 13
VINCI FR:DG Engineering & Construction Paris £59,417mn 12.7 3.8% -3.1% 8.9% 146.2% 14
Novo Nordisk DK:NOVO.B Pharmaceuticals Copenhagen £133,284mn 13.1 3.3% -27.7% 9.3% 110.9% 15
Equinor NO:EQNR Integrated Oil Oslo £46,102mn 8.2 6.1% -0.7% 40.9% 46.2% 16
Tingyi HK:322 Beverages: Non-Alcoholic Hong Kong £6,079mn 13.1 3.4% -11.6% 10.0% 70.9% =17
Grupo Aeroportuario del CN MX:OMAB Transportation Mexico £3,391mn 15.2 - 11.6% 8.2% 256.5% =17
General Mills US:GIS Food: Major Diversified NYSE £19,884mn 13.6 5.0% -8.1% 8.1% 238.4% 19
Harmony Gold Mining SA:HAR Precious Metals JSE £6,973mn 6.9 1.5% 0.4% 16.7% 47.4% 20
Evolution SE:EVO Software Stockholm £12,931mn 12.7 3.6% 26.7% 8.4% 144.0% 21
SITC International HK:1308 Marine Shipping Hong Kong £7,657mn 10.2 9.6% 24.3% 13.1% 48.3% 22
CGI CA:GIB.A IT Toronto £14,078mn 14.8 0.5% -11.5% 8.2% 133.6% 23
Teva Pharmaceutical IS:TEVA Pharmaceuticals Tel Aviv £16,581mn 7.3 - 8.9% 9.6% 62.3% 24
Merck US:MRK Pharmaceuticals NYSE £156,090mn 9.0 4.0% 6.7% 9.5% 62.9% 25
Lululemon Athletica US:LULU Apparel Nasdaq £13,886mn 12.7 - -36.0% 12.5% 45.2% 26
Corpay US:CPAY Commercial Services NYSE £16,331mn 13.4 - -8.6% 7.9% 128.8% 27
Guangdong Investment HK:270 Water Utilities Hong Kong £4,601mn 10.7 4.8% 14.6% 10.3% 52.3% 28
Anheuser-Busch InBev BE:ABI Beverages: Alcoholic Brussels £79,075mn 14.7 1.3% -16.2% 7.8% 129.6% 29
Sodexo FR:SW Food services Paris £6,682mn 9.8 5.0% -7.3% 9.2% 65.0% 30
Source: FactSet. As of 10 Sep 2025. NTM = next twelve months. RoA = return on assets. EY = earnings yield.

Teleperformance

From November 2011 to January 2022, Paris-listed Teleperformance (FR:TEP) was one of the best-performing investments anywhere.

A few factors contributed to the group’s 30-fold share price increase during this period. The biggest was booming demand for the miscellanea that counted (and still count) for its business lines: social media content moderation, call centres, consulting and other various customer experience, business processing, human resources and debt collection services.

Second was the era’s cheap financing, and the steady drumbeat of takeovers of customer management, interpreting and other assorted businesses that this facilitated. Third was solid execution and winning the confidence of global brands across a diverse range of sectors. A dose of operational gearing – which saw net margins expand from 4.3 per cent to a peak of 8.8 per cent in the second half of 2022 – also helped, as did an expansion in the shares’ trailing earnings multiple, from 10 to more than 40.

Three-and-a-half years on, and despite significant further growth in sales – helped by the acquisition of Luxembourg-headquartered peer Majorel – the shares sit 84 per cent below their peak.

First came what the company describes as “repeated and unfounded polemics . . . concerning our ESG practices” in 2022, which centred on its content management operations in Colombia and sparked a run on the shares. A share buyback, a high-profile transparency drive, and the exit of the “highly egregious” part of its content management arm arrested free-falling sentiment. But it was brief. Investor attention soon turned to artificial intelligence (AI), and the prospect of Teleperformance being wiped out by automated chatbots.

Teleperformance believes investors have misunderstood the use of AI in business processing and cites its launch of 250 new AI projects in the first half of 2025 alone as evidence. Chief executive Daniel Julien argues that the technology will augment its service offering, not destroy it.

At the company’s AGM in May, the chair, Moulay Hafid Elalamy, reportedly said “the current valuation makes no sense”. The sell-side appears to agree (see chart). That valuation subsequently made a bit more sense after the cancellation of a major visa application management contract and “the volatile business environment in the US” shaved the first-half adjusted profit margin in its specialised division by three percentage points.

Nor do analysts yet seem fully convinced that the worst is over: FactSet-compiled estimates are for sales to come in slightly below management’s guidance range this year, and to tread water in 2026 and 2027. Rewind to early 2024, and at least the top-line expansion story seemed a safe bet (see chart).

On the surface, then, Teleperformance is struggling. But the magic formula doesn’t care about surface impressions; it just likes stocks where sentiment has parted ways with fundamentals. And fundamentals for Teleperformance include growing sales in its core division, stable shareholder equity and free cash flow trending at €1bn a year despite an uptick in finance costs. The price? Little more than four times the next 12 months’ forecast profits.

That’s less than a third of the average rating across the Cac 40 index, and a multiple that’s next to unheard of for most MSCI All-World constituents.

Last month, Berenberg analyst Carl Raynsford described the investment case for the shares as “messy, but not broken”, pointing to its global leadership of (and acquisition opportunities in) the fragmented but steadily compounding customer experience industry, as well as what he saw as inconsistent investor communications and mixed messaging around its specialist services division.

Teleperformance isn’t entirely blameless when it comes to the market rout, then. But it may also be an unwitting victim of an AI hype train that hasn’t yet grasped how the technology is being rolled out. Newly listed Swedish buy-now-pay-later firm Klarna (US:KLAR), which has scaled back its reliance on AI agents in favour of human customer service employees, has offered a textbook example of how even tech native companies are balancing adequate customer engagement with the savings automation promises.

Could Teleperformance eventually turn out to be an AI winner? Like most business process outsourcing companies, it may not set any pulses racing if and when it manages to. Still, if it can at least start to repair lost investor trust, the shares are unlikely to stay in the trough forever.

Companies

McBride reinstates dividend after pre-tax profit rises

The private-label cleaning products supplier is making progress with its five-year transformation

Erin Withey
Erin Withey
  • Dividend reinstated after five years 

  • Pre-tax profit gains offset by tax rate 

McBride’s (MCB) shares rose after news broke that management would be reinstating the dividend after five years of drought on the income front. The news accompanied full-year figures that detailed a 2.7 per cent increase in reported profits to £54.9mn on a constant currency basis. But the returns were mixed overall, reflecting a somewhat subdued outlook for the company’s end markets.

However, McBride, which manufactures private-label and contract manufactured products, noted that demand has grown over the past 12 months as more retailers seek “value-led propositions and cost-reduction initiatives” against an inflationary backdrop. The private-label nature of the company’s business means it is well-positioned to benefit from this.

McBride also hit a key milestone in the road to restoring financial stability, following a difficult few years of pre-tax losses in 2022 and 2023, in which it was forced to request covenant waivers from its lenders. The group posted full-year financial leverage (net debt to cash profit) of 1.2 times – well ahead of its target of “below 1.5 times”, as the group’s focus on deleveraging delivered a £26mn net debt decrease to £105mn. 

The emphasis has been firmly on establishing what chief executive Chris Smith called a “normalised financial situation”, with the boss noting that the “reinstatement of dividends reflects our confidence in the business’s trajectory”.

The outlook statement is positive, with the early months of FY2026 showing volumes in line with expectations, in addition to continued progress towards delivering £50mn in net benefits from the group’s five-year transformation programme by 2028. 

With a forward price/earnings ratio of 5.4 times, shares in the group continue to look like good value, particularly in light of operational progress. Buy.

Last IC view: Buy, 150p, 25 Feb 2025

MCBRIDE (MCB)      
ORD PRICE: 107p MARKET VALUE: £186mn
TOUCH: 107-108p 12-MONTH HIGH: 164p LOW: 93p
DIVIDEND YIELD: 2.8% PE RATIO: 5
NET ASSET VALUE: 54p NET DEBT: 112%
Year to 30 June Turnover (£mn) Pre-tax profit (£mn) Earnings per share (p) Dividend per share (p)
2021 682 11.3 7.80 nil
2022 678 -35.3 -13.8 nil
2023 889 -15.1 -6.60 nil
2024 935 46.5 19.3 nil
2025 927 49.0 19.5 3.0
% change -0.9 +5 +1 -
Ex-div: 30 Oct
Payment: 28 Nov
*Includes intangible assets of £38.1mn, or 22p a share
Companies

PZ Cussons streamlines portfolio and swings back to profit

Management is exiting a joint venture but keeping the St. Tropez brand

Mark Robinson
Mark Robinson
  • New partnerships with intellectual property owners

  • Sale of PZ Wilmar joint venture stake

PZ Cussons (PZC) swung back into the black on a statutory basis in FY2025, although we shouldn’t take everything at face value given management’s ongoing attempts to streamline the business model. To this end, the group took the decision to sell its stake in the PZ Wilmar joint venture for $70mn (£51mn), in a post-period-end move that will “significantly reduce debt and improve key credit and bank covenant metrics”. 

By contrast, the decision was taken to retain the St. Tropez brand, albeit with a new operating model including the formation of a partnership with The Emerson Group, a US-based distributor. 

In addition, measures have been undertaken to improve brand quality within the product portfolio, including the centralisation of the R&D function. PZ Cussons has also been expanding its partnerships with intellectual property owners, including respective collaborations between the Carex and Childs Farm brands and the fictional Gruffalo and Bluey characters. 

There were significant differences between reported and adjusted metrics, which is unsurprising given the streamlining measures. Revenues grew by 8 per cent on a like-for-like (LFL) basis, offset by unfavourable foreign currency movements. It’s worth remembering that profitability in FY2024 was constrained by a currency loss of £107.5mn, which has always been something of a bugbear for the group. 

Trading in the first three-and-a-half months of the company’s new financial year was in line with board expectations, with LFL revenue growth to the end of September expected to be 10 per cent. Adjusted operating profit for FY2026 is expected to be £48mn-£53mn, excluding the profit contribution from PZ Wilmar, and including £5mn-£10mn of in-year savings. We remain circumspect ahead of further progress updates. Hold.

Last IC view: Hold, 85p, 12 Feb 2025

PZ CUSSONS (PZC)      
ORD PRICE: 72p MARKET VALUE: £310mn
TOUCH: 72-73p 12-MONTH HIGH: 104p LOW: 66p
DIVIDEND YIELD: 5.0% PE RATIO: NA
NET ASSET VALUE: 51p* NET DEBT: 59%
Year to 31 May Turnover (£mn) Pre-tax profit (£mn) Earnings per share (p) Dividend per share (p)
2021 603 71.5 10.1 6.09
2022 593 65.3 12.0 6.40
2023 656 61.8 8.70 6.40
2024 528 -95.9 -13.6 3.60
2025 514 6.50 -1.38 3.60
% change -3 - - -
Ex-div: 30 Oct
Payment: 27 Nov
*Includes intangible assets of £254mn, or 59p a share.
Companies

IP Group’s listed stocks help stabilise the portfolio

Venture capital company aims to deliver £250mn of portfolio exits and looks less like a falling knife

Valeria Martinez
Valeria Martinez
  • Ninefold year-on-year increase in cash exits

  • NAV per share up to 100p by 12 September

Venture capital is not for the faint-hearted, as IP Group (IPO) shareholders know well. The company, which backs university science and technology spinouts, saw its net asset value (NAV) per share fall by 15 per cent in 2024. Net assets slipped further in the first half of this year, albeit the NAV per share drop was much smaller at just 1.5 per cent.

Gains at listed holdings such as Hinge Health (US:HNGE), which listed on Nasdaq in May, helped the mid-year turnaround, as its shares soared more than 50 per cent since. Gains after operational progress at flagship holding Oxford Nanopore (ONT), along with IP’s ongoing buyback programme, also helped protect the NAV. 

This progress was partly offset by valuation pressures at private holdings Oxa and Artios Pharma, which, combined with a £14mn hit from currency fluctuations, meant the group reported a £43mn loss – much smaller than the £110mn recorded a year earlier. Still, cash exits rose ninefold to £30mn, including IP’s largest ever exit: the sale of Featurespace to Visa (US:V).

These realisations underpin management’s confidence in delivering £250mn of portfolio sales over the next two years. Around two-thirds of the portfolio by value is funded into 2027, and a 47 per cent surge in IP’s gross cash to £237mn gives room to continue to support its core holdings as well as ongoing buybacks. 

NAV per share rose to 100p by 12 September, but IP Group continues to trade at a hefty double-digit discount. Although venture capital is a volatile business, the group nowadays looks less like a falling knife and more like a stabilised NAV recovery play, with potential catalysts from portfolio milestones. Upgrade to buy.

Last IC view: Hold, 48p, 17 September 2024

IP GROUP (IPO)        
ORD PRICE: 52p MARKET VALUE: £468mn
TOUCH: 51.5-52p 12-MONTH HIGH: 63p LOW: 34p
DIVIDEND YIELD: NIL PE RATIO: NA
NET ASSET VALUE:  98p NET DEBT: 1%
Half-year to 30 Jun  Return on NAV (£mn) Pre-tax profit (£mn) Earnings per share (p) Dividend per share (p)
2024 -110 -111 -10.2 nil
2025 -42.8 -42.9 -4.55 nil
% change - - - -
Ex-div: -
Payment: -